Near the end of the year, considering the Spring Festival holiday arrangement in previous years, terminal enterprises have entered the final stage, and the demand for aluminum has weakened to varying degrees. However, in December this year, the performance of the demand side is different, the proportion of aluminum water in electrolytic aluminum plant in December did not decrease but increased, 0.76 percentage points higher than the previous month, 13.52 percentage points higher than the previous year, reflecting the stable performance of the processing plant, electrolytic aluminum social inventory is also continuing to go down, as of December 25, electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell to 435,000 tons. 47,000 tons less than the same period last year, then what is the actual situation of aluminum consumption? In aluminum processing products, the annual output of aluminum profiles is about 20 million tons, which occupies an important position in aluminum consumption, and its order situation can also reflect the real consumption level of aluminum to a certain extent. Based on this, Yuefeng Aluminum team conducted research on the production and sales of aluminum profile enterprises, and the research results are as follows:
Overall, as of December 25, the operating rate of the sample aluminum profile enterprises was 52%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter. Specifically, in Shandong, a leading enterprise said that although the monthly output was stable to 30,000 tons in December, and the capacity operation rate was 52%, the enterprise relied on actively developing overseas markets, and the current export order volume increased by about 5% over the same period last year. In addition, the company feedback since entering November, the order situation has improved, and the daily order volume has been greater than the actual shipment volume, and the stock order can be sustained until mid-January. A medium-sized enterprise said that the proportion of export orders increased to 60-70%, the same period last year in about 40%, exports are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States and other countries, feedback domestic demand weakening, but export orders have increased, the current start is flat, the load is about 5-60%, the order can be maintained. Small enterprise orders can also be maintained, of which a small enterprise is now aluminum profile monthly output of more than 1,000 tons, the month is stable, considering the impact of the new coronavirus last year, is expected to increase the annual output compared with last year. A large enterprise in the Guangdong market said that the current load increased to 8-90%, the proportion of export orders was 30-40%, the order performance was relatively stable, the enterprise feedback 1/3 of its products into automotive lightweight profiles, and docking large car companies, the order increase is more obvious, the consumption of other sectors has been significantly supplemented, and the order is relatively sufficient before the year. A small Foshan enterprise is now operating load increased to about 70%, mainly for export orders support. The company said that as early as the middle of the year to actively explore overseas markets, now about 60% of export orders, mainly into Southeast Asia, the same period last year exports accounted for only about 30%.
Under the efforts of aluminum profile companies to actively explore overseas markets, although domestic demand weakened at the end of the year, export orders grew steadily, making some profiles company orders ushered in a breakthrough. According to customs data, the export volume of aluminum profiles in the first 11 months was about 1.1821 million tons, an increase of 113,500 tons, an increase of 10.62%. During the year, the monthly export of aluminum profiles basically maintained positive growth year-on-year, which also verified the improvement of aluminum profile exports.
To sum up, although at the end of the year, but consumption expectations do not need to be too pessimistic, and this year's Spring Festival in February, relatively late, the current demand can still be maintained, although aluminum companies have not yet determined the specific vacation arrangements, but the general feedback or from mid-to-late January began, aluminum market consumption is still resilient.
(www.profiles-aluminum.com; sales@profiles-aluminum.com).
