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Aluminum Special Report: The Estimation of Aluminum for Automotive Use and the Impact of Automotive Industry Development on Aluminum Metal

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Aluminum Special Report: The Estimation of Aluminum for Automotive Use and the Impact of Automotive Industry Development on Aluminum Metal
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Summary: We can see from the previous calculations that The automotive industry contributed about 2.40 million tons of aluminum in 2018, with the growth rate of the automotive industry in 2019 decline, aluminum consumption has a certain drag on the automotive industry in 2019 aluminum metal volume is expected to be about 1.925 million tons (of which 1.415 million tons of recycled aluminum, 510,000 tons of raw aluminum) than in 2018, a decrease of 475,000 tons compared to 2018 Tons.

1, background

From the end consumption structure of developed countries, transportation industry is the first major application area of aluminum, in the United States, Japan and other developed countries accounted for more than 30%, of which automobile manufacturing, railway and rail vehicle manufacturing, container manufacturing industry is the most widely used, the fastest growing three areas. In recent years, China's proportion of transportation aluminum is gradually rising, in 2018 the proportion of 21%, belongs to the second largest aluminum industry.

 

Many domestic processing enterprises are exploring new applications of aluminum in various high-end industrial fields, and constantly strengthen cooperation with customers in the field of automotive, passenger cars, rail vehicles and other end-of-life. Compared with developed countries, China's automotive aluminum rate progress space is huge. Therefore, this paper will start from the automotive sector in transportation, measure the amount of aluminum used in the automotive industry, and predict the future development of the automotive industry on the impact of aluminum consumption.

2, aluminum calculation for the automotive industry

2.1 Automotive lightweight

The so-called automobile lightweight, is to ensure the strength and safety of the car under the premise of reducing the weight of the car as far as possible, thereby improving the vehicle's power, reduce fuel consumption, reduce exhaust pollution. In recent years, due to the increasingly strict requirements of environmental protection and energy conservation, automobile lightweighting has become the unstoppable trend of the world's automotive development. According to the European Aluminium Association, for every 100kg reduction in vehicle quality, 0.6L of fuel can be saved per 100 km and CARBON dioxide emissions can be reduced by 800-900g. Aluminum is only 1/3 of the density of steel, and has good plasticity and recyclability, the cost of using aluminum is much lower than carbon fiber, so aluminum is the ideal lightweight material for automobiles.

 

Since aluminum into the automotive industry, the use of increasing year by year, from the initial radiator, wheel hub slowly transition to the engine block, hood, white body and other parts. Different application sites, but also corresponding to different processing processes. Next, Yuefeng Aluminum Group will measure the amount of aluminum consumed from different parts of the car.

2.2 The use and dosage of aluminum alloy in the automobile

2.2.1 Body

Autobody is the most used material and the most mass parts in the automobile, accounting for about 30% of the total mass of the car, so the lightweighting of the car body is of great significance for reducing the weight of the car. Depending on whether aluminum is used as a body, it can be divided into all-aluminum car and non-all-aluminum body car. At present, the domestic all-aluminum body of passenger car brands are few and far between: Cadillac CT6, Jaguar XFL, Land Rover Range Rover Aurora, Azure ES8, Chery eQ1 small ants. While the aluminum rate of passenger cars and freight vehicles is very low, not more than 5%, although some enterprises produce all-aluminum vantrailer, but the output is not much, statistical lying is more difficult.

 

The aluminum alloy for automotive body panels mainly has 2000 series, 5000 series and 6000 series of alloys, while some parts of the Ullai ES8 body on the use of 7 series aluminum alloy, to be precise, more mature 7003 series, often used in aircraft landing gear, as well as fighter fuselage and other parts that require the highest material strength.

 

In general, the aluminum alloy for automotive body is high in aluminum content, at more than 90%, so the proportion of the four alloys with aluminum is taken from an average of 94%, to calculate the aluminum content of each model body aluminum alloy. Combined with 2018 production, it is estimated that the aluminum body of these six passenger cars consumes about 36,720 tons of aluminum metal.

2.2.2 Wheels

Compared with the car body, the aluminum alloy used in automobile wheels is more extensive. Aluminum alloy wheels with its light quality, fast cooling, good shock absorption performance, long tire life and other advantages, in the automotive industry stand out, the development potential is huge. Aluminum hubs are used in AlSi series alloys, Mg alloys, 6061 deformed aluminum alloys, of which AlSi7Mg alloys are the largest, accounting for about 90%. The chemical composition is: 6.5-7.5 Si, 0.30-0.45 Mg, 0.13 Fe, 0.1 Cu, 0.05 Zn, 0.05 Mn, 0.02Ti, 0.05-0.15 impurities, and the residual amount is Al. The aluminum-containing ratio of the A356.2 alloy is approximately 91.895%.

 

Because the car models are inconsistent and the corresponding wheel hubs are not in the same diameter, the car needs to be classified when calculating aluminum for wheel hubs. According to GB/T3730.1-2001 standard, cars can be divided into passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Among them, passenger car refers to the vehicle with less than nine seats (including the driver's seat), with passenger-carrying as the main purpose. Specifically, passenger cars can be divided into cars, MPV models, SUV models and cross-type. Commercial vehicles refer to vehicles with seats larger than nine seats (including driver's seats) or vehicles with cargo as the main purpose, and are divided into passenger cars, trucks, tractors, etc.

 

Large trucks and buses require long-term, high-load transport, and steel wheels are commonly used instead of aluminum alloy wheels, so only passenger cars are considered when calculating the amount of aluminum used in wheel hubs. We selected the highest-selling brands in 2018 from each model to calculate the amount of aluminum used in individual wheels, as shown in Table 4.

 

In 2018, the production of domestic cars, SUVs, MPVs and crossover vehicles was 1145648, 9932167, 1677611 and 422,461, respectively. Among the cars, the A-Class, Class B and C-Class account for 75%, 20% and 5% respectively, so it can be estimated that the aluminum alloy wheels in 2018 will be 486,610 tons of aluminum metal.

2.2.3 Engine

The cylinder block of gasoline engine is divided into cast iron and cast aluminum. In engines with the same displacement, an aluminum block engine is about 20kg lighter than a block engine with cast iron. For every 10% reduction in vehicle weight, fuel consumption can be reduced by 6% to 8%. The engine of the cast aluminum cylinder is mainly derived from recycled aluminum rather than raw aluminum, mainly ADC12, also known as aluminum No. 12, Al-Si-Cu alloy, is a die-cast aluminum alloy, suitable for cylinder head cover, sensor bracket, cylinder block class, etc., its chemical composition is: 10.8 Si, 0.3 Mg, 1.3 Fe, 2.5 Cu, 1.0 Zn, 0.5 Mn, 0.5 Ti, 0.3 Impurity, Residual amount is Al. The aluminum-containing ratio of the ADC12 alloy is approximately 82.8%.

 

Similar to the calculation of aluminum for wheel hubs, the highest-selling brands in 2018 are selected from each model to calculate the amount of aluminum used in individual car engines. But there are some different places are: C-class cars, such as audi A6L, BMW 5-series, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, etc., are using cast iron engine, cross-type cars, such as Wuling Hongguang V, also use cast iron engine.

Based on the production of various models in 2018, it can be estimated that the aluminum-based aluminum metal for cast aluminum engines in 2018 is 1768,793 tons.

2.2.4 Air conditioning for cars

In the past, the radiatorin in the automobile generally used copper alloy, that is, copper pipe, if the use of aluminum tube aluminum fin radiator instead of copper alloy, the quality can be reduced by 20% to 45%, the development of automobile lightweight will gradually promote China's automotive air conditioning radiator 100% aluminum alloy. According to Yuefeng Aluminum Group, the average car air-conditioning consumption of aluminum foil about 4kg, of which the condenser each use 2.5kg, the evaporator each use 1.5kg.

 

Automotive aluminum heat exchanger is composed of aluminum tube sepsis with cooling water and cooling heat sink, aluminum tube generally with 1xxx and 3xxx aluminum alloy by squeezing, pulled, heat fins by 3xxx system, 6xxx aluminum alloy core and 4xxx system, 7xxx aluminum alloy layer welding composite foil. He has a large number of gold medal series, mainly 3003 alloy, its chemical composition is: 0.6 Si, 0.7 Fe, 0.05-0.20 Cu, 0.1 Zn, 1.0-1.5 Mn, 0.1-0.2 impurities, the residual amount is Al. The aluminum content ratio of 3003 aluminum alloy is about 96.925%. According to data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car production in 2018 was about 27.8092 million, and aluminum metal for air conditioners was about 107,816 tons.

2.3 Summary

In summary, the amount of aluminium metal for automobiles in 2018 estimated from the four parts of automobile body, wheel hub, engine and automobile air conditioning is about 2399939 tons (36720 + 486610 + 1768793 + 107816), or about 2.4 million tons. Among them, about 631,000 tons of metal are contributed by primary aluminium, and another 1769,000 tons are contributed by recycled aluminium.

3, the next three years the development of the automotive industry demand for aluminum metal forecast

3.1 Status of the automotive industry

In recent years, under the influence of rapid economic development and industry policy stimulus, China's automobile production and sales are rising, and the total amount of aluminum metal used is also increasing. However, under the influence of high base and the increasing service life of automobiles, the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales is gradually slowing. Since July 2018, China's auto production and sales have fallen for 13 consecutive months from a year earlier, with the auto industry in the manufacturing sector down significantly.

According to the statistics of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales in January-July 2019 were 13.933 million units and 1.4132 million units, down 13.5% and 11.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car production and sales of 11.501 million units and 11.654 million units, down 15.3% and 12.8% YoY, while commercial vehicle production and sales of 2.432 million units and 2.477 million units, down 3.53% and 4.36% YoY.

3.2 Future Outlook

The overall growth rate of auto production and sales in 2019 is likely to show a high trend after the previous low, but the overall trend is still showing a decline. Auto production and sales growth slowed by 13.7% and 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2019, with July's figures slightly improving. Since the purchase tax on passenger cars for 2016-2017 is lower than in 2018, equivalent to the overdraft for 2018, the purchase tax on passenger cars of 1.6L and below in 2019 is the same as in 2018, both 10%. The impact of the full withdrawal of the car purchase tax concession on cars in 2019 is significantly lower than in 2018.

 

China's emission standards will be implemented on July 1, 2019 is expected to have a significant impact on auto production and sales in the first half of the year. On the one hand, on the board and transfer will be a certain restriction, while some second-hand car move will also be affected by a certain degree, on the other hand is the performance of the vehicle itself, because to meet more stringent emission requirements, the power system will have to go through the readjustment, so consumers are in a wait-and-see state, waiting for the six policies to land. All manufacturers and dealers are in a hurry to clean up the national five inventory before landing, so many unsold models have a very large price reduction behavior, cleaning up inventory at the same time took away what should be July and August part of the sales. At present, the six standards have officially landed, consumption suppression situation or improved.

 

In response to downward pressure on economic growth, the government has also taken measures to maintain growth, such as maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. If the auto industry continues to underperform, the possibility of other government measures to boost car consumption, such as the "car to the countryside" policy introduced at the beginning of the year. The effect of the implementation of the policy will take some time to show, so the second half of the auto production and sales growth compared to the first half or slightly improved, rating agency Moody's forecast 2019 China auto sales growth of about -6.5%. Despite the continued policy rollout, the auto motive industry is still in the process of bottoming out, with sales expected to be in line with 2019.

4, summary from YueFeng Aluminium Group

From the previous calculations, we can see that The automotive industry contributed about 2.40 million tons of aluminum in 2018, with the growth rate of the automotive industry in 2019 decline, aluminum consumption has a certain drag on the automotive industry in 2019 aluminum metal volume is expected to be about 1.925 million tons (of which 1.415 million tons of recycled aluminum, 510,000 tons of raw aluminum) than in 2018, a decrease of 475,000 tons compared to 2018 Tons. However, due to the high proportion of recycled aluminum alloy in which, the price impact on ADC12 and other recycled aluminum is more obvious, resulting in the price of recycled aluminum lower than the original aluminum price, forming a period of inverted hanging.

 

In contrast, the slump in the automotive industry has a limited impact on raw aluminum consumption, which needs to be combined with other end-of-the-terminal conditions of raw aluminum. Based on the expectation that the growth rate of auto production and sales will improve slightly in the second half of the year, while the uhevering aluminum is improving, according to SMM estimates that the second half of the year to contribute at least 300,000 tons of increased demand; Photovoltaic sand spree for industrial profiles also has a certain pull effect, the second half of aluminum consumption growth rate is the same as the same period last year. Due to the decline in electrolytic aluminum production growth, new and resumed production capacity release speed is not as expected, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season will arrive aluminum ingots or will continue to the library.

 

Give us a call at +86 18662963676, email us at sales@profiles-aluminum.com to find out how YueFeng Aluminium can help with your aluminum profile/ aluminium solutions design.

Pub Time : 2019-08-26 11:28:38 >> News list
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