Since the second quarter of 2023, the pattern of weak operation of China's aluminum rod spot market has become more and more severe, the processing cost of consumption has continued to fall under pressure, the supply side has continued to climb to refresh the high level in the same period in recent years, and the dilemma of the lack of demand at the consumer side has intensified, and the road of aluminum rod factory is also feeling difficult at this time. In June 2023, under the situation that there are enterprises in some regions showing a reduction in production, the process of China's aluminum rod production operation to make a breakthrough in high value has slowed down slightly.
【 Production capacity 】
As of June 2023, according to statistics, the effective construction capacity of China's aluminum rod during the current period is 29.82 million tons, of which Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi are among the top three at this stage according to the effective scale.
The scale of Shandong still dominates, while emerging markets such as Guangxi and Yunnan have entered the forefront of the domestic aluminum bar output base with continuous rapid development and investment in recent years.
In 2023, after a half-year baptism of time, according to the definition of effective capacity of Mysteel (the aluminum rod production line of the enterprise is idle and shut down for half a year or more, which is temporarily classified as zombie capacity and non-effective capacity), the current capacity of China's aluminum rod was re-proofread in June 2023. The current effective capacity was revised to 29.82 million tons, an increase of 1.23 million tons compared with the beginning of the year (including the removal of zombie capacity and the addition of new capacity). In the combing, we can see that there is a situation of mutual storage of increase and decrease variables among provinces, among which Guangxi, Yunnan and Gansu regions contribute the main incremental value, while a part of zombie capacity in Shandong region has been temporarily eliminated in a stage.
According to statistics, in June 2023, China's aluminum rod operation capacity was 17.27 million tons, and the monthly average domestic capacity utilization rate was 57.91%. From a regional point of view, during June, only less than half of the regional capacity utilization rate of the 14 sample areas in China was higher than the domestic average level, of which the aluminum rod capacity utilization rate in Sichuan and Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou and Henan was less than 50%, which was affected by the operation of some aluminum rod manufacturers in each region with output shrinkage, resulting in the overall production line running momentum also declined.
Through the comparison of the monthly value of capacity utilization, we can see that compared with May, the June period, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and Shanxi and other regions have shown a month-on-month decline, and in June, the enterprises with aluminum rod output reduction are basically in such areas, and occasionally some distributed in other provinces.
【 Output 】
According to statistics, as of June 2023, China's aluminum rod production in the current period was 1.42 million tons, a monthly decrease of 5.46%.
Compared with May, in June, except for a small increase in individual regions, the monthly production of most provinces was in a month-on-month reduction situation, in addition, one of the reasons for the incremental region is the difference in the number of days of output, 31 days in June, and 30 days in May. According to the average daily output ratio, it was 4.85 tons/day in May and 4.73 tons/day in June. In the case of the same cycle, the overall output in June was in the process of adjustment.
【 Warehouse 】
According to statistics, as of the end of June 2023, the inventory of China's aluminum rod production enterprises was 96,800 tons, an increase of nearly 30,000 tons compared with the beginning of the month, and an increase of more than 17,000 tons compared with the end of May.
During June 2023, the overall inventory of China's aluminum rod production enterprises in the factory was in an incremental rhythm of change, with the weakness of spot market trading and the low price of aluminum rod processing fees, which prompted some of the inventory in the factory to remain, although the monthly production has slightly decreased, but the relative high output point still exists, and the monthly quantification of 1.4 million tons. The situation that led to oversupply continued to play out, and the external transportation of the rod factory's cargo sources faltered, and some of the cargo sources were in the position of delayed delivery.
【 Summary 】
In May 2023, China's aluminum rod production exceeded 1.5 million tons, although there was a slight reduction in June, but the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still staged, in the face of the spot market pressure, as the source of aluminum rod production enterprises intensified pressure, but the relatively passive situation, so that their own adjustment is still limited, the feedback of corporate losses is increasing, but due to multiple factors, One after another to meet the difficulties of the act also a little mixed up in the involuntarily.
(www.profiles-aluminum.com; sales@profiles-aluminum.com).
