On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) within a year for the fourth time cut global economic growth forecast, to Britain may from EU political isolationism issued a warning about the risks, and remind the economic imbalances intensified.
IMF in its latest world economic outlook report is expected, the global growth rate of 3.2% this year, January has been lowered to 3.4%, last July and October when the agency had two cut economic growth forecast. IMF expects 2017 global economic growth rate of 3.5%, than in January estimated a decrease of 0.1 percentage points.
IMF will China's growth forecast this year slightly to 6.5%, 2017 growth forecast to 6.2%, in part because of the previously announced policy stimulus measures and domestic demand has toughness". The estimate is far below the 6.9% growth rate achieved in 2015, but since the beginning of last year, the three cut, IMF currently holds a more optimistic stance.
IMF said it is down to China's long-term growth forecast, saying the country's economy from investment oriented growth model of major transformation, will still have a strong impact on global trade.
The IMF also warned, said China's economy than the current forecast a sharp slowdown in the on trade, commodity prices and confidence in the market have strong international spillover effects, leads to the general slowdown in the global economy especially the future income is expected to further reduce.
In view of Chinese accounted for nearly half of global demand for metals, will change the economic slowdown and domestic fundamentals of the world's second largest economy have a negative impact on commodity prices.
IMF said metal price is expected to fall by 14% and 1% respectively in the next two years. Future prices point to continued decline, but the demand (especially from China) and the impact of strong supply, the existence of uncertain gains.
Despite the 2016 metal prices (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc) start to the good, but basically at the level of ten years ago.
IMF is more optimistic about the economic growth in India, is expected to grow 7.5% this year, last year's economic growth of 7.3%. Although the India coal consumption and imports are expected to accelerate, but the real impetus to the country's economic growth is not the price of metal.
It nearly doubled the amount of metal consumption in India over the past 20 years. But its global share rose from 1.9% to 3.4%. In contrast, Chinese in the global metal consumption share in 1990 from 6.4% to 43.9% last year.
Annual growth rate of China's metal consumption has slowed from 10.3% in 1995-2008 to 3.2% in 2010-2014.
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