Abstract: at this conference, Wen Xianjun, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, delivered a keynote speech entitled "current situation and Prospect of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry".
On December 12, 2019, the "2020 China Nonferrous Metals Market Prospect and'my Nonferrous and my stainless Steel 'Annual meeting of the 2020 (second) Shanghai Commodities week was solemnly held at Crowne Plaza Shanghai.
This conference is jointly sponsored by Shanghai Steel Union Electronic Commerce Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Futures Exchange, co-sponsored by Modern Resources Co., Ltd., and specially sponsored by Yuefeng Aluminum Technology Co., Ltd. the purpose is to review the operation situation of the non-ferrous metals and stainless steel market in 2019, at the same time to make an omni-directional and multi-angle in-depth interpretation of the non-ferrous metals and stainless steel market in 2020, and make a professional prospect of the price trend in the new year. Help the participants in the industrial chain to lay out ahead of time in 2020.
At this conference, Wen Xianjun, vice president of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, made a keynote speech entitled "current situation and Prospect of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry".
First of all, the literature army talked about the general situation of China's non-ferrous metals industry. Since 2002, the output of China's ten commonly used non-ferrous metals ranked first in the world. in 2018, the national output of ten non-ferrous metals was 56.88 million tons, an increase of 6 percent over the same period last year, and electrolytic aluminum, as the main variety of non-ferrous metals, ranked first in the country. the document army further pointed out that the stock of aluminum in the whole society will reach its peak in seven years, and from January to October 2019, the national output of ten non-ferrous metals was 48.15 million tons, an increase of 4.6 percent over the same period last year. The consumption of major varieties of non-ferrous metals ranked first in the world in 2018. by the end of 2018, there were 7904 enterprises in China's non-ferrous metals industry (excluding gold), with assets reaching 4.2 trillion, and the main business income of enterprises in the non-ferrous metals industry accounted for 4.9% of the country's regulated industrial enterprises. The asset-liability ratio of the non-ferrous metals industry is 6% higher than that of the whole country, while the sales profit margin is 2.6% lower than that of the whole country. this is mainly because non-ferrous metals private enterprises account for a relatively high proportion of non-ferrous metals private enterprises. in 2017, private enterprises accounted for 45% of total non-ferrous assets and 80% of profits. however, the activity of private enterprises has declined significantly in recent years, and the non-ferrous industry is a capital-intensive industry. In 18 years, the capital cost difference between private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the aluminum industry can reach 4 percentage points, which is the main reason for the high asset-liability ratio and low profit margin in the past 18 years. In 2018, the total profits of the smelting and processing sectors decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, falling by 11% and 8% respectively.
Subdivided into specific non-ferrous varieties, by the end of 2018, the profit margin of copper smelting is only 1.8%. Compared with the balanced distribution of profits in the aluminum industry, the profit of copper is gradually tilted to resources. The aluminum industry selects an 18-year profit margin of 4.0%, smelting 2.0%, and Calendering processing 1.9%. The total smelting profits of lead and zinc varieties fell 77.2% year-on-year, assets, liabilities and main business income accounted for about 8% of the total amount of China's non-ferrous metals industrial enterprises in 2018, and small category profits were about 21.4 billion yuan. The small variety of metals in Chinese has focused on the introduction of magnesium metals. the current scale of magnesium is 1 million tons, but it may become the fourth largest metal after steel, copper and aluminum in the future. at present, the scale is limited by poor processing performance and high processing costs, but it is improving at present. there is a chance to break through 10 million tons in the future.
In terms of the industry as a whole, the literature army concluded that in the first three quarters of 2019, the number of enterprises in China's non-ferrous metals industry (excluding gold) reached 7980, with total assets reaching 4.6298 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.53% over the same period last year, and total profits of 104.9 billion yuan. Down 0.12% from the same period last year. Subsequently, the document Army compared the profit levels of the national regulation industry and the non-ferrous metals industry from January to October 2019, and found that the main business income of the industrial enterprises was 86 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year, while the non-ferrous industry was 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year. non-ferrous metals account for 5.2% of the country. In 2018, the profits of regulated industrial enterprises totaled 5.0151 trillion yuan, down 2.9 percent from the same period last year; those in the non-ferrous industry totaled 113.2 billion yuan, down 1.9 percent from the same period last year, accounting for 2.3 percent of the country.
At the end of 2018, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises in the non-ferrous industry was 56.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year; and 63.9% in the non-ferrous industry, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, and 7 percentage points higher than the national non-ferrous industry. In 2018, the sales profit margin of industrial enterprises in the non-ferrous industry was 5.9%, down 0.44 percentage points from the same period last year, and 2.5% in the non-ferrous industry, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year, and 3.4 percentage points lower than that in the whole country. Financial situation of the non-ferrous metals industry (excluding gold) in the first three quarters of 2019.
Then the document Army focuses on the development prospect of China's aluminum industry. At present, the cost of domestic alumina is $100 / ton higher than that of foreign countries, and the growth of alumina production stops in 2019. It is estimated that the output of alumina in China will be 71.59 million tons in 2019, which is basically the same as that of the previous year. Electrolytic aluminum production shows negative growth, and China's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be 36 million tons in 2019, down 1.6% from the previous year. This is mainly due to the large-scale reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in 2019, and the internal and external demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening. China's electrolytic aluminum consumption is expected to be 36.5 million tons in 2019, down 1.2%. With regard to aluminum exports, the document pointed out that domestic and foreign aluminum price differences, exchange rates and trade problems jointly affect aluminum exports; since June, aluminum exports have declined month by month, with a total export of 4.31 million tons from January to October, an increase of 0.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate has narrowed month by month. From January to October 2019, bauxite imports maintained rapid growth, alumina returned to net imports, and aluminum exports decreased month by month. The weakening of aluminum consumption is specifically reflected in the lack of bright spots in the real estate industry and the substantial output of automobiles. From the overall supply and demand pattern, the domestic aluminum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years.
Finally, the document Army expressed the prospect for the development of the aluminum industry. first of all, China's aluminum industry is in an important historical period, China has established a complete aluminum industry system, and a perfect industrial chain is China's core competitiveness. it provides a guarantee for the supply-side structural reform of the aluminum industry, the output of main products can meet the domestic demand, some aluminum products supply the international market, and some products are structurally surplus. Aluminum consumption has entered a low growth rate and will enter a consumption platform; international trade problems have intensified; structural contradictions in the aluminum industry are still prominent, and supply-side structural reform has a long way to go. Then the document army listed the problems facing the future development of the aluminum industry. the decline in the growth rate of China's economy has led to a sharp drop in the growth rate of domestic aluminum consumption, and the aluminum industry is about to enter a consumption plateau, and the increasing pressure on environmental protection has greatly increased the cost of environmental protection. the weakness of basic research is difficult to provide sufficient innovation; The deficiency of industrial structure and product structure has increasingly revealed the importance of adjusting and optimizing industrial layout and adjusting product structure; international trade problems have intensified, the export environment has deteriorated, and global production capacity will be further expanded.
In order to achieve the strategic goal of building China into a world aluminum industry power in the next five to ten years, the document Army believes that it is necessary to ensure that domestic and foreign resources can fully and stably guarantee domestic demand, alumina does not pursue self-sufficiency, the domestic supply gap is commensurate with the production capacity of overseas alumina rights and interests, electrolytic aluminum is mainly to meet domestic demand and improve the level of upgrading and utilization of recycled aluminum. Speed up the merger and reorganization of domestic aluminum processing enterprises, gradually reduce homogenized competition, standardize export order, increase investment in basic research and applied research, and improve the overall competitiveness of the industry.
More specifically, if the aluminum industry wants to give full play to its institutional advantages, improve its strategic guidance, improve homogenization and disorderly competition, and strengthen basic research and technical reserves, it is necessary to make full use of institutional advantages and develop overseas bauxite resources in an orderly manner. Timely adjust the domestic industrial policy and import and export policy, gradually expand the production capacity of overseas alumina rights and interests, strictly control the use of new alumina production capacity from domestic mines, and study the feasibility of the development of domestic aluminum resources under coal, gradually guide the inland alumina production capacity that lacks bauxite resources to withdraw, and properly distribute and use imported mines to produce alumina production capacity in coastal areas; Strictly control the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, and appropriately guide the transfer of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity to clean energy-rich areas. The development of recycled aluminum industry is mainly based on the park, strengthen environmental protection, take the classified utilization of building profiles and easy-to-pull cans as a breakthrough, improve the application level of recycled aluminum, speed up the research and development and application of automobile body sheet (ABS) and aviation aluminum, make up for the shortcomings of domestic high-end aluminum, strengthen industry self-discipline, guide aluminum processing enterprises to improve industry concentration by means of merger and reorganization or mutual participation, and reduce homogenized competition. Basic research is mainly funded by the state and attended by scientific research institutes of colleges and universities. The development of applied technology is mainly based on production enterprises, with the active participation of scientific research institutions and users, promoting the integrated development of production, learning, research and application, researching and developing new foreign consumer markets, gradually adjusting the structure of export products and export destinations, and standardizing the export order. Continue to cultivate new domestic consumer market, guide consumption, continue to expand effective supply, unremittingly expand the application of domestic aluminum can further promote the development of the aluminum industry.
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