Analysts expect a global aluminium gap of 191,750 tonnes in 2023
July 30, 2023
Analysts expect a supply gap of 191,750 tonnes in the global aluminium market this year, falling to 66,000 tonnes in 2024 as aluminium production in Yunnan increases, according to a survey.
Earlier this year, a reduction in hydropower capacity in Yunnan province triggered power curbs, which led to production cuts at aluminium smelters, supporting aluminium prices, which rose to a seven-month high in January. But analysts said this month that power restrictions had now been eased and smelters in Yunnan had begun to ramp up production. The resumption of smelters in Yunnan this year will certainly put pressure on aluminium prices.
Analysts on average expect LME aluminium spot contracts to average $2,308 a tonne in the fourth quarter of this year, down 8% from the previous survey's forecast.