Deepseek in the New Year, deep, objective and comprehensive analysis is like the beginning of "Ai awakening", aluminum as a "star product" supporting the rise of "new three" applications in recent years, in the eyes of Deepseek artificial intelligence technology, what kind of development attitude does it hold?
The following is the world aluminum network dialogue Deepseek review of China's aluminum industry record.
Well, the user asked me to review the Chinese aluminum industry, I must first understand the basic situation of this industry. First, I remember correctly that China is the world's largest producer and consumer of aluminium. But the specific data may need to be verified, such as the proportion of global production, may be more than half. Then consider the structure of the industrial chain, from bauxite to alumina to electrolytic aluminum, and finally the processed materials and application fields. May the problem of resource dependence on imports, such as bauxite mainly from Guinea, Australia and other countries, will this lead to supply chain risks?
Then there is the problem of overcapacity. Did the country have supply-side reforms in the past to limit new production capacity? In terms of environmental protection, electrolytic aluminum is a problem of high energy consumption, high emissions, carbon emissions and power consumption, especially under the dual-carbon goal, the industry is facing transformation pressure. In terms of technological innovation, the proportion of recycled aluminum may still be relatively low, and it is necessary to improve the recovery rate and reduce energy consumption.
In terms of international competition, Chinese aluminum exports may face trade barriers, such as anti-dumping duties, which will affect the export market. There are also geopolitical factors, such as the stability of resource supplies. In the domestic market, the growing demand for aluminum in new energy fields such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics may be an opportunity.
Users may want to know not only the current situation, but also the trends and challenges of the future. They may be investors, industry workers or students. Key issues need to be pointed out, such as resource dependence, environmental pressure, overcapacity, but also opportunities, such as recycled aluminum and technology upgrades. Users may also want to know the impact of policies, such as industry adjustments under the dual-carbon target, or changes in the international trade situation.
Make sure the review is comprehensive, but sharp and doesn't shy away from the question. For example, although China's output is large, it is large but not strong, high-end products may rely on imports, and low-end overcapacity. Under the pressure of environmental protection, small businesses may be eliminated and industry integration accelerates. The development potential of recycled aluminum is large, but it needs technical and policy support. In addition, trade frictions in the international market may continue, affecting exports. Finally, the suggestions should be specific, such as improving technology, optimizing layout, and developing circular economy.
China's aluminum industry occupies a pivotal position in the world, but it also faces multiple challenges, which need to be deeply analyzed from multiple aspects such as resources, technology, environmental protection and international competition:
1. Production capacity and structure: large but not strong, urgent upgrade
Overcapacity and policy regulation: China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity accounts for 57% of the world (2022 data note 1), but there is a long-term problem of low-end overcapacity. Although supply-side reforms (such as cleaning up illegal capacity and strictly controlling new capacity) have eased some of the pressure, regional capacity replacement (such as transferring to clean energy rich areas such as Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Injection 2) still faces risks such as power supply fluctuations and rising costs.
High-end dependence on imports: high-end aluminum materials (such as high-strength aluminum alloy, aluminum lithium alloy) in aerospace, automotive lightweight and other fields are still dependent on imports, and core processes and equipment (such as high-end rolling mills, coating technology) are subject to European, American and Japanese enterprises, showing the industry chain "jam neck" short board.
2. Resource security: bauxite import dependence
Import dependence of more than 60% : domestic bauxite grade is low, high mining costs, mainly dependent on Guinea (accounting for more than 50% note 3), Australia and Indonesia. Geopolitical risks (such as the coup in Guinea, the Indonesian export ban) and fluctuations in shipping costs directly threaten supply chain security.
Overseas layout and game: Chinese enterprises try to control resources by investing in Guinea's Simandou iron ore supporting bauxite ore and Indonesia's aluminum oxide plant, but they face challenges such as repeated local policies and upgrading environmental protection standards.
3. Environmental protection and double carbon pressure: transition life and death line
Carbon emission problem of electrolytic aluminum: carbon emission of about 12 tons per ton of electrolytic aluminum (mainly thermal power) Note 4, the industry accounts for nearly 5% of the country's total carbon emissions. In Yunnan and other places, the "hydropower aluminum" model is restricted by seasonal low water period, and its stability is doubtful. Hydrogen aluminum smelting, inert anode and other technologies are still in the laboratory stage.
Insufficient permeability of recycled aluminum: China's recycled aluminum accounts for only 20% (more than 50% in Europe and the United States), the recycling system is scattered, backward sorting technology leads to low utilization rate of waste aluminum. Driven by the policy, the capacity of recycled aluminum in the next 10 years or double, but the need to break through the bottleneck of pretreatment and smelting technology.
4. International competition: trade barriers and technological containment
Trade friction normalization: the United States and Europe frequently impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum on the grounds of "subsidizing excess capacity" (such as the EU's 14.3%~24.6% tariff on aluminum plate and foil), forcing enterprises to turn to Southeast Asia to build factories or deep processing exports.
Technology blockade intensifies: The West through restrictions on the export of high-end equipment (such as high-performance rolling mills), patent barriers hinder China's aluminum processing technology upgrade, need to be wary of "green barriers" (such as carbon tariffs) become a new tool of repression.
Breakout path: from scale expansion to value reconstruction
Technology breaking: Joint universities and institutes to tackle high-purity aluminum purification, short-process aluminum regeneration technology; Support Nanshan Aluminum industry, Chinalco and other leading to the standard Alcoa, Hydro.
Circular economy closed loop: legislation to force aluminum recycling in the automotive and construction sectors, promote the "urban mine" model, and use the Internet of Things to track the flow of waste aluminum.
Green energy binding: promote the joint operation of electrolytic aluminum, photovoltaic and energy storage projects to reduce the cost of electricity carbon; Explore CCUS (carbon capture) landing in electrolytic aluminum plants.
International resource discourse power: Strengthen long-term agreements with resource countries such as Guinea and Vietnam, and participate in international mining giants to hedge risks.
Conclusion
China's aluminum industry is at the crossroads of "scale dividend peak" and "high-quality transformation". If it can achieve breakthroughs in resource security, low-carbon technology and high-end products, it is expected to be upgraded from "global factory" to "value chain leader"; If we stick to the old model, we may fall into a vicious circle of "high cost - low profit - technology lag". The next five years will be a critical window.
