The National Development and Reform Commission held a June press conference on June 18, at which Li Chao, deputy director of the policy research office and spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, answered reporters' questions on a number of hot issues such as electricity consumption in the whole society, the construction of 1 trillion national debt projects, and the new energy vehicle industry. Among them, some of the issues related to the nonferrous aluminum industry are worthy of attention.
On the issue of energy and power to meet the peak summer this summer, the spokesman said that up to now, the installed power generation capacity in the country has maintained rapid growth, the regulation of power plants to store 198 million tons of coal, hydropower water storage situation is better than the same period last year, for this year to meet the peak summer power supply provides a good basis for work. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, during the peak summer this year, the temperature in most parts of the country is higher than the same period in normal years; Especially this year in East China, southern regions early in the summer, some areas may occur a large intensity of high temperature weather process, this summer peak power supply, we must fully consider the impact of extreme weather events and the huge heat cooling power demand, continue to study and judge the situation dynamically, do enough preparation. Electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is a typical power consumption, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still in progress, is expected to be completed by the end of June. The future is about to enter the summer peak of electricity consumption, do not rule out in the case of tight power supply and demand, there is a "let electricity to the people", resulting in the possibility of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in some areas forced to reduce production, the future need to pay attention to the temperature and precipitation in Yunnan hydropower production capacity area, as well as other thermal power production areas of power supply and demand pattern. In addition, the increase in coal demand will also raise the cost of thermal power, which will push up the cost of electrolytic aluminum industry.
On May 29, The State Council issued the "2024-2025 energy conservation and carbon Reduction Action Plan", and the press conference also made an answer to the promotion of future energy conservation and carbon reduction work. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with other relevant departments, has issued special action plans for energy conservation and carbon reduction in four industries, namely steel, oil refining, synthetic ammonia and cement, with specific targets and implementation paths specified. At the same time, it also said that it is accelerating the introduction of special action plans for energy conservation and carbon reduction in other key industries such as electrolytic aluminum, data center, coal and power low-carbon transformation and construction, and will also carry out in-depth energy efficiency diagnosis of key energy use units, vigorously promote energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation and energy use equipment renewal, and continue to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction work in key areas such as industry, construction, and transportation. The relevant program is still in the promotion period, the current impact on the high energy consuming industry led by aluminum is temporarily difficult to predict, during this period or will become a certain support for aluminum prices, the need to continue to follow up policy trends.
The spokesperson also answered questions about new energy vehicles and consumer goods. The spokesperson said that the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant parties to continue to create a fair and competitive market environment through policy guidance, regulation and supervision, fully stimulate the vitality of various business entities, promote the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry and enterprise optimization and restructuring, enhance technological innovation and industrial chain supporting capabilities, strengthen international cooperation, and continue to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry. In terms of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, the spokesperson pointed out that from January to May 2024, the investment in the purchase of equipment and appliances increased by 17.5% year-on-year, contributing more than 50% to the total investment growth; From January to May, the major e-commerce platforms of home appliance replacement sales increased by more than 80%, and the replacement of old appliances has become an important factor to promote the growth of home appliance consumption. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial joint meeting system, further strengthen overall planning and coordination, increase policy support together with relevant departments, and accelerate the landing of various funds. At the same time, we will strengthen the guarantee of factors, coordinate and solve problems in a timely manner, guide and drive the broad participation of enterprises and all sectors of society, and promote the large-scale upgrading of equipment and the replacement of old consumer goods for new work to achieve greater results. The national level of support for the development of new energy vehicles, as well as the continued implementation of the relevant policies of "old for new", will play a strong support for the end demand of aluminum, and give market demand to good expectations.
In general, for the nonferrous aluminum industry, the answers to relevant questions at the conference to a certain extent from the supply and demand of two aspects to give aluminum price support. At present, the non-ferrous aluminum industry is facing the situation of supply and demand reduction in the off-season, and the performance is weak in the past week, and the benefit from the macro level may strengthen the support of the aluminum market.
