1. China's alumina production in May 2024
Baichuan Ying Fu statistics, in May 2024, China's alumina production was 7.107 million tons, an increase of 2.24% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 229,300 tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons from 227,500 tons in April 2024. In May, some alumina enterprises in Guizhou, Chongqing and Shandong carried out maintenance work, and the alumina production of enterprises was reduced in stages. However, in late May, the inland ore supply is expected to improve, which promotes the resumption of some alumina production capacity, the alumina market has rebounded, Shanxi, Henan to achieve a total of about 1.2 million tons of production capacity, but the resumption of some production capacity in May to release production is more limited, more production increment will be reflected in June. Overall, the alumina market started in May compared with April, and Nissan increased from April, but the increment was more limited.
At present, the profit level of the alumina market industry is on the high side, affected by this, alumina enterprises have a high willingness to stabilize production and high yield, some enterprises actively promote the resumption of production, and some production capacity is expected to increase. Therefore, it is expected that the daily production of China's alumina industry will increase in June 2024 compared with May, and it is expected that China's domestic alumina production will be about 7.05 million tons in June.
Baichuan Ying Fu statistics, in May 2024, China's primary aluminum production was 3,622,800 tons, an increase of 5.62%, the average daily output of 116,900 tons, the annual output of 42,772,400 tons; An increase of 0.05 million tons from 116,400 tons per day in April 2024. In May, China's electrolytic aluminum industry mainly increased production. In terms of production resumption, the production capacity affected by the accident in Inner Mongolia at the end of February has been restored in May. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region continue to release production capacity, and because aluminum prices continue to be high and volatile, the industry profits are considerable, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a more positive attitude toward production resumption. As of May 31, 2024, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region have started production capacity of 5.49 million tons, resumed production capacity has reached 905,000 tons, and the operating rate has recovered to 86.05%. In terms of new production, the new production capacity of Huayun III in Inner Mongolia has been completed and started production. In summary, as of May 31, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum industry built a capacity of 47.769 million tons, and the construction capacity of 42.996 million tons, an increase of 435,000 tons from April. In June, it is expected that Yunnan will continue to resume production, and Inner Mongolia will continue to put into new production. According to the current increase and reduction situation, it is estimated that in June 2024, China's electrolytic aluminum production is about 3.54 million tons, and the daily chemical production is about 118,000 tons, and the average daily production continues to increase.
3. China's aluminum rod production in May 2024
Baichuan Yingfu statistics, in May 2024, China's aluminum water rod production was 1.215,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.50%, with an average daily output of 39,200 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the average daily output in April 2024. The increase of production is mainly reflected in Gansu, Shandong, Yunnan and Chongqing region. An aluminum water rod enterprise in Gansu province inspected the furnace in March and April, and raised production in May, but did not reach full production. Shandong is mainly a large aluminum water rod factory that reduced production in the early stage increased production in May, and the current construction is less than 50%; A small increase in aluminum rod enterprises in Yunnan and Chongqing is mainly due to a slight increase in downstream new energy orders. In Guangxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xinjiang and other places, aluminum water rod enterprises have reduced production, of which many aluminum rod enterprises in Guangxi region stopped production at the end of April due to large losses, until gradually resumed production around May 10; Henan aluminum water rod enterprises said that the price of aluminum rod supplies sent to other places such as Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu is far lower than the local factory quotation, leading customers to buy more foreign rods, resulting in a reduction in orders from local aluminum rod enterprises, in which case the local rod factory was forced to reduce production; Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Xinjiang aluminum rod enterprises said that the long single customer delivery will weaken, the downstream extrusion plant is afraid of high wait and see, the country's consumption places have extrusion plants to reduce production, insufficient orders make aluminum rod enterprises reduce production more.
It is understood that Gansu, Guizhou and Chongqing and other places originally planned to increase production in June will delay the resumption of production time, downstream extrusion profile factory production according to order, small factories to stop production more, in this case, aluminum rod enterprises production enthusiasm weakened, so Baichuan Yinfu is expected in June 2024 aluminum rod production and average daily production compared with May have reduced.
4. Comparison of monthly supply and demand balance between alumina and electrolytic aluminum in China in May 2024
Baichuan Yingfu statistics, in May 2024, China's metallurgical grade alumina production of 7.107 million tons, based on the actual arrival of the port (not calculated by customs declaration time) in May imports of 71,500 tons, Qingdao port 1 ship, Fangcheng port 1 ship. Calculated by departure time (not calculated by customs declaration time), the export volume in May was 130,000 tons; For non-metallurgical grade alumina of about 150,000 tons, China's electrolytic aluminum production of 3,622,800 tons, according to the tons of aluminum alumina consumption of 1.93 tons, in May, China's alumina supply shortage of 93,500 tons, alumina market supply is tight.
5. Comparative forecast of monthly supply and demand balance between alumina and electrolytic aluminum in China in June 2024
Baichuan Profit Fu expects that China's alumina production in June 2024 is about 7.05 million tons, and non-aluminum alumina is about 140,000 tons, while the conservative estimate of imported alumina is expected to import about 60,000 tons in June, exports are about 130,000 tons, electrolytic aluminum production is about 3.54 million tons, according to the calculation of 1.93 tons of aluminum alumina per ton. It is expected that in June, China's alumina supply surplus of 0.78 million tons, and supply and demand are basically balanced.
#Alumina #electrolytic aluminum #aluminum production
