According to Antaike's calculation, the weighted average full cost (including tax) of electrolytic aluminum in China in April 2024 was 16,707 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 118 yuan/ton or 0.7%; While the cost has decreased slightly, the aluminum price has risen sharply, and the industry's profit space has expanded significantly. According to the average price of Shanghai aluminum continuous contracts in April 20322 yuan/ton, the average profit of the month was 3615 yuan/ton, an increase of 1171 yuan/ton from the previous month, and an increase of 1721 yuan/ton year-on-year. Antaike statistics, in April China's electrolytic aluminum production of about 3.51 million tons, compared with the full cost loss of 3.2% in March, in April to achieve industry-wide profit.
The analysis of the main cost factors shows that the price of alumina and the price of electricity have declined to varying degrees in April, making the corresponding cost in the production of electrolytic aluminum continue to decrease. Antaike estimates that in April, the cost of electricity and alumina decreased by 79 yuan/ton and 45 yuan/ton respectively, and the overall anode cost was flat. The three factors accounted for 38.7%, 41.6% and 11.7% respectively in the manufacturing cost of electrolytic aluminum.
From the perspective of power cost, affected by the recent decline in coal prices, the power cost of self-provided electricity enterprises has continued to decrease, while the price of network electricity in various regions is relatively stable. In March, with the end of the northern heating season, the residential electricity load decreased, the industrial electricity recovery was slow, and the power demand side entered the traditional off-season. On the one hand, with the rapid recovery of coal production in the main producing areas, coal output showed a growth trend. In March, the daily output of coal was 12.88 million tons, an increase of 9.6% over the average daily output in January and February. On the other hand, coal imports increased sharply from the previous month, with 41.38 million tons of coal imported in March, an increase of 22.6% from the previous month. Strong coal supply and weak demand led to a significant decline in coal prices in March, the average price of Qinhuangdao Shanxi thermal coal (Q5500) in March was 872 yuan/ton, down 5.4% from the previous month; At the end of March, the price was 827 yuan/ton, down 10.3% from the end of February. In April, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of electricity for aluminum companies would be further reduced. According to Antaike statistics, the weighted average price of self-supplied electricity in April was 0.404 yuan/KWH, down 0.008 yuan/KWH from the previous month; The price of network electricity is 0.490 yuan/KWH, down 0.001 yuan/KWH from the previous quarter; The comprehensive weighted average electricity price was 0.447 yuan/KWH, down 0.006 yuan/KWH from the previous quarter. From the point of view of alumina cost, affected by the collective rise in commodity prices, Russian metal by the United Kingdom and the United States sanctions and other factors, the rapid rise in alumina futures prices led to the bottom of the spot price rebound in April, and the price of alumina fell first and then rose in the month. According to the calculation of Antaike alumina spot quote, during the raw material procurement period of aluminum enterprises in April, the spot price of alumina was 3346 yuan/ton, which fell by 16 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous month, and the cost of alumina in the production process of electrolytic aluminum was slightly reduced. In addition, the post-festival anode market is generally stable, the price continues to be stable, and the anode cost changes little.
At present, with the gradual decline in coal prices, as well as hydropower, new energy and other output continues to increase, the industry-wide power cost will further decline, but alumina prices are rising strongly, the anode also has the trend of bottoming out, the main cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased and decreased, it is expected that the total cost in May will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range of 16500-17000 yuan/ton.
#Aluminum cost
