Abstract: the global economy is expected to return to 3.3% growth in 2021, but only if the epidemic is brought under control in China in the first quarter of this year, and outbreaks in other regions are proved to be moderate and contained.
At present, the global epidemic is in a state of emergency. New cases of the new crown epidemic in South Korea, Italy, Iran and other countries continue to rise, and new crown cases appear for the first time in many countries. The market is still paying close attention to the impact of the epidemic on the economy. In order to restrain the development of the epidemic, countries have actively introduced financial measures to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the economy.
The OECD (OECD) warned that the novel coronavirus epidemic would plunge the global economy into its worst recession since the financial crisis in 2009, and urged governments and central banks to take measures to avoid a deeper recession. The OECD cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 to 2.4% from 2.9%, the lowest level since 2009. The group expects the global economy to return to 3.3% growth in 2021, but only if the epidemic is brought under control in China in the first quarter of this year and outbreaks in other regions prove moderate and contained. But the OECD warned that global economic growth could slow to 1.5% this year if the epidemic spreads in Asia, Europe and North America.
In order to combat the negative impact of the epidemic, a number of countries have launched fiscal stimulus measures, as follows:
Another central bank cuts interest rates! Malaysia cut the overnight policy rate from 2.75% to 2.50%. [Trump tweets late at night to put pressure on the Federal Reserve] late at night local time in the United States, US President Donald Trump tweeted to put pressure on the Federal Reserve. He pointed out that in response to the new crown epidemic and the recession, the RBA cut interest rates and said it may cut interest rates further. Other countries are doing the same, and the Fed has put the US at a disadvantage in the competition. The Fed should be loose and cut interest rates sharply, and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell was wrong from day one.
[United States] National Economic adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Nuchin support emergency interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
[us] Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a statement that the Fed is monitoring the risks posed by the new crown epidemic to the US economy and promised to take action if necessary.
Bank of America expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in March] Bank of America economists now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its March meeting to contain market panic and support economic growth. Whether to cut interest rates urgently before the meeting will depend on the extent of market failure. Bank of America is confident that the Fed will respond to recent market performance, and the only issue at issue is the timing and scale of the Fed's action.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday that the government is prepared to introduce further fiscal stimulus measures if necessary to protect the already fragile economy from the negative impact of the new crown epidemic. Shinzo Abe has promised to focus on stopping the spread of the epidemic in Japan in the coming weeks. Abe's response to the epidemic crisis has drawn criticism from the outside world; the number of confirmed cases in Japan is now close to 1, 000, of which 12 have died. For Japan, the timing of the outbreak is tricky, raising the risk that the economy will shrink for the second consecutive quarter. At this time, Japan is preparing for the Summer Olympic Games from July to August. "We have prepared a spending plan to guard against all kinds of risks," Mr. Abe said in Congress on Tuesday, funded by the supplementary budget for the current fiscal year ending in March and the budget for the next fiscal year.
[Abe: Japan will announce the second round of anti-epidemic policy with a budget reserve of 270 billion yen] according to reports, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on the 2nd that in order to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic and reduce the damage to the economy, Japan will announce the second batch of response strategies around March 10. Abe told Congress that the government will take adequate measures, including the use of 270 billion yen (17.5 billion yuan) in budget reserves to help small and medium-sized enterprises cope with the lack of funds. "We will carefully monitor the development of the situation and take measures without hesitation as necessary," Abe said. According to the Japan Broadcasting Association, more than 940 new crowns have been confirmed in Japan, of which 705 are from the cruise ship Diamond Princess docked in Yokohama, Japan.
[Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he will continue to pay close attention to the impact of the epidemic on the economy; will make full use of budget reserves to deal with the epidemic; and downside risks will be taken into account in next year's budget.
[Japanese Prime Minister: the second batch of measures to deal with the epidemic will be announced around March 10] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Monday that Japan will announce the second batch of measures around March 10 to stop the spread of novel coronavirus and reduce its damage to the economy. Mr Abe told Japanese lawmakers that his government would take sufficient measures, including drawing on its 270 billion yen ($2.5 billion) budget reserves, to help small and medium-sized enterprises cope with any funding shortfall. "We will carefully monitor the development of the situation and take measures without hesitation as needed," Abe said. "
[Japan's basic Policy on Countermeasures] in view of the trend of novel coronavirus's spread in Japan, the countermeasure headquarters set up by the Japanese government, on the basis of listening to the recommendations of the expert meeting, issued the "basic guidelines for novel coronavirus's Countermeasures for Infectious Diseases." it marks that Japan has shifted from preventing the virus into Japan on the national border to strictly controlling the spread of the epidemic at home in terms of prevention and control of the new crown. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at the meeting: "it is very important to control the rate of increase in patients as much as possible and to curb the spread of the epidemic in the country." All localities should, in accordance with the policy and in the light of their own specific conditions, earnestly take measures to deal with them. "
[Japan] Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Kuroda made a speech on March 2 on the financial market turmoil caused by the spread of the epidemic, saying that "efforts will be made to ensure an adequate supply of funds and financial market stability through appropriate financial market regulation and purchase of assets."
Prime Minister Morrison said the government expects banks to follow suit if the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates. And will take measurable and scalable targeted financial response.
[Europe] ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB was ready to take appropriate action if necessary.
[new Zealand] the Ministry of Finance of New Zealand: the new crown epidemic puts pressure on the economic outlook; the outbreak is expected to have a material negative impact; the risk of negative impact is expected to last for several quarters.
[Italy] the Italian government announced that it would launch a 3.6 billion euro stimulus package, including tax breaks for companies with revenues falling by more than 25 per cent, and injecting more money into the health care system, following rescue support worth 900m euros in the country's worst-hit areas on February 28th. At the same time, Italy will apply to the European Union to raise the budget deficit ceiling for the current fiscal year.
[South Korea] recently, the South Korean government announced that it was formulating "special measures", including the allocation of 16 trillion won (about 93.1 billion yuan at the current exchange rate), to strongly support consumption, investment and exports. minimize the impact of the epidemic on people's livelihood and economy. The main measures include increasing the proportion of consumption personal tax deduction, reducing automobile consumption tax, providing value-added tax concessions to small and micro enterprises, and so on.
[South Korea] South Korean Finance Minister Hong Nanji said that South Korea will submit a supplementary budget plan to parliament on Thursday, and the total size of the additional budget will exceed 10 trillion won.
[South Korea] Market News: South Korea will add an additional budget plan to parliament on Thursday, and the total size of the additional budget is expected to exceed 10 trillion won.
[Germany] German Finance Minister Olaf Schultz said on March 1 that the German government has sufficient financial "ammunition" to deal with the impact of the epidemic. Germany will launch a stimulus package if it is deemed necessary.
[British Treasury: preparing to take measures to help businesses and the economy] the British Treasury said on Monday (2) that as the new crown epidemic continues to spread, the government is preparing to introduce measures to support health care, businesses and the economy. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak said in a statement that he was ready for the global threat and was ready to announce further support measures if necessary. In addition, Prime Minister Johnson's office said it would publish legislation in the coming weeks to give the government the necessary powers to prepare for the epidemic. The Ministry of Finance also said that the first budget will be submitted to Congress next Wednesday, and Sunak will provide further updates on economic development and government action.
[UK] the Bank of England is working closely with the Treasury, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and international partners to ensure that all necessary measures are taken to protect the financial and monetary system from the new crown epidemic.
[the EU will hold a summit of health ministers to discuss measures to deal with the new crown epidemic] the European Union will hold a summit of health ministers to discuss measures to deal with the new crown epidemic. On the 28th local time, a spokesman for the European Commission announced that health ministers of EU member states will hold a ministerial summit on March 6 to jointly discuss relevant measures to deal with novel coronavirus and formulate a unified European defense policy to effectively curb the spread of the epidemic.
[Indonesia plans a second stimulus package to deal with novel coronavirus's threat on a "larger scale" than the first batch of "larger" measures. Indonesia is developing a second stimulus package to support Southeast Asia's largest economy on the basis of the positive actions taken by the Bank of Indonesia in response to novel coronavirus's impact on financial markets. Indonesian Minister of Economic Co-ordination Airlangga Hartarto said in an interview that the new fiscal measures will be "larger" than the first batch of 10.3 trillion rupiah ($725 million) announced last week.