Abstract: generally speaking, the impact of the global spread of the epidemic on the aluminum industry chain is mainly in the downstream consumer side, especially on the export of aluminum products in China.
In terms of bauxite.
China's overseas bauxite projects are mainly distributed in Guinea, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, India, Malaysia, Ghana and other countries. Judging from the current development of the epidemic, the epidemic situation in Guinea, Ghana and other African countries is temporarily stable, 1 case and 6 cases respectively. Malaysia (393 cases) and Australia (267 cases) have a large number of confirmed cases, while Brazil (175 cases) and Indonesia (111 cases) are temporarily under control. Although the epidemic has not yet caused changes in the production side, if the epidemic cannot be controlled in a timely and effective manner, it may affect ports and shipping at a later stage.
The production capacity of foreign alumina is mainly concentrated in Oceania, South America and Asia (except China). Among them, Australia has become a major overseas alumina production site because of its rich bauxite resources and low energy costs. at present, the overall operation is stable and has not been affected by the epidemic. This year's new projects are concentrated in Indonesia, India and the United Arab Emirates. In the future, the market will be affected by the development of the epidemic in the main producing areas, as well as changes in downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and more attention should be paid to the follow-up.
At present, there is no news about the reduction and suspension of production caused by the epidemic at the overseas production end. at present, only Iran has the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in the world seriously affected by the epidemic, but its output of alumina only accounts for 0.18% of the total global output in 2019. The output of electrolytic aluminum only accounts for 0.51% of the total global output, and the development of the aluminum industry is relatively slow. If the epidemic cannot be effectively controlled, Iran's electrolytic aluminum production may be affected to some extent, but it still does not affect the global supply and demand glut.
The epidemic has a great impact on aluminum consumption. It is expected that China's aluminum exports will grow negatively and the export volume may decline. The main export destinations of China's aluminum strip include Mexico, the United States, Canada, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and India. It is expected that the market demand in Asia and North America, the main export regions of aluminum products in China, will shrink, the impact of the epidemic on China's aluminum exports will appear in the second quarter, and the spread of the epidemic will have a negative impact on aluminum consumption. in turn, it will also have a negative impact on the number of export orders in China.
Overall, the impact of the global spread of the epidemic on the aluminum industry chain is mainly in the downstream consumer end, especially on China's aluminum exports, which may lead to the postponement of consumption expectations in the peak season, which was originally expected to be opened. in today's situation that affects the whole body, aluminum enterprises still need to improve their "immunity".