Abstract: according to relevant research forecasts, due to the excellent performance and role of aluminum, the global aluminum market will continue to grow, by 2040, the global demand for aluminum will reach 163.7 million tons / year, a net increase of 65.8 million tons / year from 97.82 million tons in 2018. It grew by 67.3%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.37%.
Bai Ke (Chris Bayliss), deputy secretary-general of the International Aluminum Association, delivered a speech at the "Aluminum Packaging and Sustainability Forum" and the "Aluminum processing Forum" at the Shanghai Aluminum Industry Exhibition, introducing the results of the International Aluminum Association's forecast for the future global aluminum market. The challenges and risks faced by the aluminum industry at present and in the future are described.
According to relevant research forecasts, due to the excellent performance and role of aluminum, the global aluminum market will continue to grow, by 2040, global aluminum demand will reach 163.7 million tons / year, a net increase of 65.8 million tons / year from 97.82 million tons in 2018, an increase of 67.3%. The average annual growth rate is 2.37%. Although the growth rate will slow over the next 22 years compared with the average annual growth rate of 5.43% in the past 2008-2018, it is conceivable that there will be a cumulative global aluminum market demand of 2.96 billion tons between now and 2040. This will be a huge market increment, which will continue to bring room for the continuous expansion of the aluminum industry. But at the same time, it will also bring a lot of challenges and risks.
In terms of consumption structure, transportation, construction and structure, packaging are still the main areas of consumption. By 2040, aluminum consumption in these three areas will reach 48.79 million tons, 43.58 million tons and 19.29 million tons, respectively, accounting for 30 per cent, 27 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. Among them, the automobile industry is still the most growing application field. In particular, the development of new energy vehicles in China is considered to be one of the most important sustenance points for the growth of aluminum consumption.
In terms of product structure, aluminum products are divided into four categories: aluminum rolled materials, aluminum extruded materials, aluminum castings and others. By 2040, production and sales will reach 53.74 million tons, 61.28 million tons, 37.69 million tons and 10.99 million tons respectively, an increase of 73.3%, 76.3%, 52.3% and 46.7% respectively over 2018.
On the global aluminum supply side, global aluminum demand and product structure will still be dominated by raw aluminum supply by 2040, but the proportion of recycled aluminum will increase significantly, from 32.8% in 2018 to 43.8% in 2040. Global demand for primary aluminium is expected to be 92.06 million tons per year in 2040, an increase of 27.72 million tons, or 43%, from 64.34 million tons in 2018. In 2040, the supply of recycled aluminum will reach 71.87 million tons per year, an increase of 40.47 million tons, or 129%, from 31.4 million tons in 2018. Among them, the old waste aluminum recovered from scrap products will be 49.55 million tons / year, and the new waste aluminum recovered from aluminum processing and production will be 22.31 million tons. It is expected that the global recycling of waste aluminum will exceed the supply of primary aluminum around 2050 in the middle of this century.
The report predicts that China's combined aluminum production will reach 75.8 million tons in 2040, up 73% from 43.81 million tons in 2017 and an average annual growth rate of 2.41%. Although production growth has slowed significantly from the past decade, China will remain the world's largest aluminium producer and marketer, accounting for 46.3% of global aluminium production in 2040, compared with 46.8% in 2017. In 2040, the output of aluminum rolled materials in China will reach 22.3 million tons, an increase of 62.3% over 2017, the output of aluminum extruded and pressed materials will reach 32.69 million tons, an increase of 92.4%, the output of aluminum castings will reach 15.4 million tons, an increase of 59%, and the output of other products will be 5.4 million tons. Up 59%.
In 2040, China's aluminum supply was 43.65 million tons, an increase of 11 per cent over 2017, accounting for 57.5% of the supply. The supply of recycled aluminium was 3215 tons, an increase of 192% over 2017, accounting for 43.5% of the supply, compared with 24% of the supply in 2017. With the increase of aluminum reserves in Chinese society, scrapped aluminum products have entered an accelerated cycle period, and the amount of recycled waste aluminum will increase significantly compared with the present, while the increase in the demand for primary aluminum will be very limited. This will be an important change in China's aluminum raw material supply.
The International Aluminum Association believes that while aluminum demand and industry continue to develop, The development of the global aluminum industry also faces three major risks and constraints: sustainable supply of bauxite raw materials, excessive emissions of red mud and electrolytic aluminum overhaul slag, and greenhouse gas emissions. As a result of the above sustainability problems, the aluminum industry is facing some negative comments, and it also affects the position of aluminum materials in the market competition. From now on, the aluminum industry as a whole needs to respond actively, take action, shoulder social responsibility, and firmly embark on the road of sustainable development.
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