1. China’s Bauxite Import Analysis
Recently, alumina futures prices have continued to fluctuate downward. Since November, the weighted alumina price index has declined by 3.7% cumulatively, settling at RMB 2,710 per metric ton. The current oversupply in alumina smelting persists, and with substantial new capacity scheduled to come online next year, this surplus trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Consequently, bauxite prices—the primary cost component—have become the key determinant of the bottom price for alumina.
This year, as bauxite projects in Guinea and non-traditional supplying countries have steadily ramped up production, China’s imports of overseas bauxite have surged significantly. As of October, China had imported a cumulative total of 171.4 million metric tons of bauxite, an increase of 30.11% year-over-year. Major contributors to this growth include Guinea, Guyana, Malaysia, and Brazil, while imports from Australia declined slightly.
Guinea: From January to October, China imported 127.43 million metric tons of bauxite from Guinea, up 38.37% YoY. However, shipments were disrupted during the rainy season, leading to three consecutive months of declining imports. Volumes are expected to gradually recover starting in November.
Australia: Over the same period, China imported 31.6 million metric tons from Australia, down 4.23% YoY, primarily due to increased domestic consumption driven by the restart of local alumina refineries.
Other non-mainstream sources: Imports from other emerging suppliers totaled 12.37 million metric tons, surging 85.98% YoY.
2. Has Bauxite Hit Bottom Price?
Following significant capacity expansion, bauxite supply has gradually shifted toward surplus. Combined with continuously shrinking profit margins at alumina refineries, smelters have intensified their efforts to negotiate lower bauxite prices. As a result, Guinea bauxite prices have fallen from over USD 120/ton at the beginning of the year to around USD 71/ton currently. Although temporary price rebounds occurred earlier due to rainy-season disruptions, prices have resumed a downward trend as shipments normalize.
From a seaborne inventory perspective, floating bauxite stocks rose from 11.92 million metric tons to 13.8 million metric tons as of November 28. Despite reduced arrivals between August and October, port inventories remain elevated, further pressuring bauxite prices post-rainy season. In the near term, bauxite prices are expected to remain under downward pressure.
A meaningful price reversal would require large-scale supply contractions overseas. The import cost of Guinea bauxite is now a critical support level. According to Aldan Research, the FOB production cost of Guinea bauxite ranges between USD 20–50/ton, with USD 40/ton representing a dense concentration point that includes operating expenses, taxes, and inland transportation costs. Current freight rates from Guinea to China fluctuate between USD 20–25/ton, and may rise further once the Simandou iron ore project begins full operations.
Taking all factors into account, a CIF price floor of USD 60–65/ton for Guinea bauxite appears robust, which translates to an alumina cost support range of RMB 2,450–2,550/ton. If bauxite prices fall below this threshold, it is likely to trigger supply cutbacks by mining companies.
