Currently, the Trump administration of the United States aims to "obtain" Greenland, which has led several European pension funds to plan to sell US treasury bonds or stocks; in Minnesota, the US state, there have been two consecutive fatal shootings by federal law enforcement officers, causing several Democratic members of the Senate to state that if the appropriation bill includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Democrats will refuse to advance the necessary spending plan; due to investors' doubts about the sustainability of Japan's long-term fiscal situation, the yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds has risen significantly. This sharp fluctuation quickly spread globally, triggering a chain of concerns about fiscal discipline, political uncertainty, and cross-border capital flows, causing the yield on US 10-year treasury bonds to also rise rapidly. The US and Japanese governments may jointly intervene in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
The internal and external policy dilemmas of the Trump administration have led to a significant decline in the US dollar index.
The Gambia Aluminium Alliance AGB2A - GIC has received approval for production, which will enable the Guinean Central Mining Area to resume normal mining operations in December 2025 and contribute approximately 40 million tons of bauxite supply in 2026. The Guinean mines under Shundah Mining resumed production on December 13, 2025, and the first shipment of bauxite may depart in January 2026. The Camalco development of the Mimbata bauxite mine in Cameroon by Australian Canyon Resources is expected to commence production in early 2026. China Aluminium's Guixi Nandou sedimentary bauxite mine has begun construction and is expected to produce 800,000 tons of bauxite annually. The relatively loose supply-demand expectations have led to a环比 decrease in the domestic bauxite price.
In 2026, China's production of alumina is expected to reach 92.45 million tons. Excluding China, the global production of alumina is projected to be 61.50 million tons. The demand for alumina in China in 2026 is expected to be 85.90 million tons, with a net export volume of 2.00 million tons. Excluding China, the global demand for alumina is estimated to be 59.52 million tons. Therefore, the global supply and demand of alumina in 2026 is likely to be in a relatively loose state.
The electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Europe and the United States has been difficult to fully resume due to a lack of electricity or high electricity costs. The newly-built 1.57 million-ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity in countries like Indonesia has also been progressing slowly due to a lack of electricity or the lack of an advantage in coal electricity prices. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to its limit, with limited new or replacement production capacity, approximately 590,000 tons. The global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be 76.58 million tons in 2026, with China's electrolytic aluminum production expected to be 45.44 million tons. The global electrolytic aluminum demand is expected to be 76.51 million tons in 2026, with China's electrolytic aluminum demand expected to be 47.33 million tons. Therefore, the global electrolytic aluminum supply and demand in 2026 is expected to be slightly loose.
Recently, due to the re-matching of orders between the State Grid and the Southern Grid, the export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be cancelled starting from April 1st. The funds for "trade-in" of used cars are gradually arriving, and the seasonal growth in demand for aluminum foil has also occurred. As a result, the operational capacity of aluminum processing enterprises has increased. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the effect of the traditional consumption off-season becomes more pronounced, which may cause large-scale aluminum processing enterprises to gradually reduce their operational capacity, and the capacity utilization rate may shift from rising to falling. In the long term, the growth in demand in areas such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage power transmission will become the main driving force for the upward movement of the aluminum price center.
