The downstream construction is gradually started, but the demand is not reflected, and the aluminum price is weak and fluctuates in a narrow range.
LME inventories fell 14950 tons to 1177425 tons on Tuesday, LME three-month aluminum closed up 0.26% at $1721.5 a tonne, and Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed up 0.22% at 13725RMB.
Although the downstream construction is gradually started, the demand for raw materials has not yet been fully reflected. Due to the staff can not fully arrive at the post, the supply of raw materials is not timely and downstream orders are shrinking and other reasons, the library is still continuing. After the Spring Festival, the number of electrolytic aluminum storage in China has increased by 510000 tons, and the total inventory of 1.7 million tons of aluminum ingots will continue to grow to put pressure on aluminum prices, which is expected to exceed 650000 tons after the festival.
At present, the market is looking forward to the resumption of domestic work, but I am afraid the short-term demand side is still weak. In the medium term, due to the postponement of the release of new production capacity in the first quarter, there is still a small mismatch between supply and consumption in the later period, and the overall falling space for aluminum prices is limited.
Short-term aluminum prices are expected to show a weak and narrow shock pattern.
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