LME inventories rose 19100 tons to 1131675 tons on Friday, and aluminum for three-month delivery closed up 0.81% at $1552.5 a tonne. Shanghai Aluminum's weekly inventory fell 5922 tons to 528072 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed up 0.51% at RMB11755.
On the macro side, the Ministry of Commerce: car sales fell by 37% of the total social zero from January to February. The central government has set an appropriate increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and determined to issue special treasury bonds. The British Prime Minister confirmed on Friday that the epidemic abroad has greatly expanded. As of 07:58 on the 30th, there were more than 140000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. There are more than 720000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. Global manufacturing has been hit hard, crude oil has plummeted, non-ferrous metals have weakened, Lun aluminum has risen slightly, and Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, but it is still running below 12000.
In terms of industry, Guinea declared a national health emergency for 30 days. As the largest importer of bauxite in China, it is worth paying attention to whether Guinea will take measures to lock up the country and seal up the city. The price of alumina continues to fall, and there is a small transfer of profits in the industrial chain, but under the collapse, the loss of electrolytic aluminum is still serious. at present, some electrolytic aluminum production capacity has stopped production, but the volume is still small, and there is still news of new production capacity and resumption of production in the near future. the pressure of excess supply of electrolytic aluminum is greater. A number of overseas auto companies have stopped production, and negative expectations of exports constitute a significant negative for medium-term fundamentals.
Overall, the current price of Shanghai Aluminum has cost support, but the demand side is poor, the trend of aluminum price is still weak, and the trend has not been reversed yet. At present, the electrolytic aluminum industry has suffered substantial losses, and the scale of production reduction may be expanded. We believe that the downward space of aluminum price is limited and may fluctuate in the current position.
Shanghai aluminum has a pressure of 12000 above and a support of 11000 below.
