In the September FOMC meeting statement of the Federal Reserve, the statement removed the description that energy supply pushed up inflation. This means that the Fed believes that the high inflation is not the imported inflation caused by the increase in energy prices, but is due to the continuous strengthening of the US economy. In addition, Fed Chair Powell stated that the current broad financial conditions do not yet have restrictive characteristics and this interest rate hike is described as "removing some easing". This indicates that the Fed has entered the interest rate hike cycle, and the subsequent policy interest rate range will gradually rise.
From the performance of the interest rate market, the trading of the expectation of interest rate hikes is relatively aggressive. Overall, the macro environment has a neutral to positive impact on the non-ferrous metals sector.
From the perspective of bauxite, with the weakening of the impact of the rainy season in Guinea, the subsequent shipment volume may increase somewhat, and the shipment volume of Australian bauxite is expected to be flat on a quarterly basis. In the domestic aspect, with the increase in rainy and snowy weather and the increase in environmental protection risks in the northern region, it has certain disturbances to bauxite production, and the domestic supply of bauxite is unlikely to have a significant improvement.
Overall, it is expected that the supply of bauxite will be stable on a quarterly basis in the short term, and domestic inventories are at an absolute high level in recent years, making it difficult for there to be a supply shortage.
Regarding alumina, in the first half of the year, Guangxi added 7 million tons/year of alumina production capacity, and production gradually climbed in the second half of the year. There will still be new alumina production capacity put into operation in September. The increase in energy and bauxite prices has raised the production cost of alumina, and in addition, the recent continuous decline in alumina prices will lead to some production capacity being shut down for maintenance. The output of alumina is expected to increase slightly in the future. Moreover, the trend of increasing alumina production in overseas continues, so the global supply of alumina remains in an increasing trend.
Regarding the electrolytic aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is subject to policy restrictions, and high profits support the operating rate of existing production capacity. It is expected that the supply volume in the medium term will be stable. In the overseas aspect, the projects of Vietnam's Chen Hongquan Metallurgical Company, Indonesia's Kaltara Project, India's Balco Project, and Indonesia's Pioneer Project still have room for production growth, and the Pioneer Project in Indonesia plans to be put into operation within the year. In addition, the Al Taweelah Project in the Middle East region is accelerating its resumption of production, the Slovalco Project in Europe and the Marston smelter Project in the United States plan to be put into operation by the end of the year. Although the Bintan Project and the Weda Bay Project of Tsingshan have been delayed in production, overall, the growth rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively fast.
In the real estate sector, the recent State Council meeting proposed "using the remaining debt limit of local governments well", which may further broaden the financing space and promote the acceleration of real estate projects. In addition, the recently introduced personal housing loan interest subsidy policy will boost the demand for real estate terminals. However, due to the fact that real estate inventory is still at a historical high level, it is expected that the impact of policies on new start-ups will have a time lag.
In the power grid sector, the central bank lowered the collateralized supplementary loan interest rate and included the "six networks" construction in the support scope. In the short term, this will provide certain support for power grid construction. However, due to the impact of weather, the medium-term progress of power grid construction may gradually slow down.
In the photovoltaic sector, although there is a boost from "export rush", considering the difficulty of green electricity consumption in major regions this year and the large inventory pressure of photovoltaic components, it is expected that the output of photovoltaic components will not have a significant increase.
In the automotive sector, recent regions have launched automotive purchase subsidy policies, and the domestic consumer "trade-in" subsidy funds have been successively released. It is expected that the policy end will support automotive consumption.
In the intermediate link, according to the production rhythm in previous years, the short-term demand旺季 may push the production rate of the aluminum industry to rise， but with the end of terminal procurement and the narrowing of the internal and external price difference dragging down domestic aluminum export demand， it is expected that the production rate of aluminum products will decline in the medium term.
In conclusion， it is expected that the aluminum price will gradually move downward. From the perspective of the rhythm， the short-term downstream demand旺季 provides certain support for the aluminum price， and in the medium term， as the consumption off-season approaches， the aluminum price may show a fluctuating downward trend.
