Core Abstract
The US surprise attack on Venezuela has intensified global geopolitical turmoil. It is expected that the US dollar index will first be strong and then weak, with the risk premium of bulk resource products rising. Among them, the safe-haven attribute of precious metals will be strengthened, but the risk of chasing gains in a high-volatility environment needs to be guarded against. Crude oil is short in the short term and short in the long term. The tight supply of raw materials is expected to push up domestic asphalt prices. For specific analysis, please refer to the main text.
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The background and process of the US surprise attack on Venezuela
After Trump returned to power in 2025, the United States intensified its pressure on Venezuela across the board: In September, the US military assembly began, and for the first time, it cracked down on drug vessels. In October, the USS Ford aircraft carrier was deployed and 15,000 US troops were stationed. In November, a $50 million reward was offered for the capture of Maduro. The cruise ship "Captain" was seized for the first time in December. On December 16th, Trump announced a complete lockdown. On December 20th, the wharf facilities were attacked and the first land strike was carried out. Ultimatum on Christmas Eve, December 22nd. Although Maduro expressed his willingness to negotiate on drug control and accept US oil investment on New Year's Day 2026, it did not lead to a easing of the situation. At 3 a.m. on January 3, 2026, Eastern Time of the United States, the United States bypassed Congress and launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela under the pretext of drug enforcement. It raided Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, arrested Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and brought them back to the United States. Subsequently, Trump delivered a speech at the White House, stating that the United States would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition was implemented, and that major American oil companies would also invest in Venezuela to revitalize the country's oil industry on the verge of collapse. At present, Venezuela is in a state of anarchy, but the basic structure of the government remains. On January 4th, Beijing time, the Constitutional Court of the Supreme Court of Venezuela ordered Vice President Delsi Rodriguez to take over as interim president to maintain the operation of the government.
The reasons for the US surprise attack on Venezuela
There are multiple considerations behind the US government's military strike against Venezuela: First, to prepare for the mid-term election. The US government has achieved its goal of arresting the Venezuelan president and his wife through a low-intensity conflict this time. This not only helps to win over Hispanics who are dissatisfied with the Maduro government but also avoids the risk of getting overly involved in the war and provoking resentment from the domestic MAGA base. Second, control strategic resources. Although Venezuela's daily crude oil production is only around 1 million barrels due to economic downturn, aging facilities, and US sanctions, and the oil quality is heavy oil, which is difficult and costly to extract, Venezuela's crude oil reserves rank first in the world, and the US Gulf of Mexico refinery has the process to handle heavy oil. The two naturally have high complementarity. In addition, Venezuela is also rich in mineral resources, such as bauxite, iron ore, gold and other resources. Third, consolidate the backyard of Latin America and build an "American fortress" for the United States in the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela has long been at the core of the left-wing camp in Latin America. After this operation, the United States is highly likely to support pro-American forces to come to power in Venezuela, which will effectively deter anti-American left-wing forces in Latin America and even globally (such as Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, Nicaragua, Colombia and other countries), and may even affect the political ecology of these countries in the future, such as the Brazilian general election to be held in October 2026. Venezuela is also an important strategic fulcrum for China and Russia in Latin America. Over the past decade, China has invested more than 60 billion yuan in Venezuela through the "oil-for-loan" model. The proportion of RMB settlement in China-Venezuela oil trade has exceeded 60%, and the proportion of RMB in the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Venezuela has reached 45%. The revival of the "Monroe Doctrine" in the United States may curb the development of the two countries in Latin America.
Venezuela is rich in oil and mineral resources, but the supply scale is relatively small
Oil: According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Opec, Venezuela's proven oil reserves amount to 303.2 billion barrels, ranking first in the world and accounting for approximately one-fifth of the global reserves. Venezuela's economy is highly dependent on the oil industry. Oil extraction and export are the main sources of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Venezuelan oil is explored, developed, produced, sold, processed and exported by the national oil company. It is mostly heavy oil in terms of characteristics, and the derivative products generated during the refining process are rich in variety, mainly including heavy diesel oil, Marine fuel oil, lubricating oil, asphalt, etc. About 90% of Venezuela's oil exports go to China, accounting for 6% to 7% of the country's total oil imports.
Natural gas: According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Venezuela's proven natural gas reserves amount to 5.54 trillion cubic meters, ranking eighth in the world. Meanwhile, Venezuela is verifying the reserves of natural gas fields in the northern region near the Caribbean Sea. Once the verification is completed, the country's natural gas reserves are expected to rise to the fourth place globally. According to data from Venezuela's state-owned oil company, Venezuela's natural gas production will be 1.755 billion cubic feet per day in 2024, and it is expected to start natural gas exports from 2026 to 2027.
Bauxite: According to incomplete statistics, Venezuela's bauxite resources are approximately 3.48 billion tons, with proven reserves of 1.33 billion tons. The main deposits include Los Pichiguaos, La Sewatana, Upata, Nuria, etc. Among them, the Cedno region in the west of Bolivar State is an important bauxite distribution area and smelting plant base in Venezuela. The bauxite resources in Venezuela are characterized by their large scale, concentrated distribution, but relatively low exploration degree.
Iron ore: According to incomplete statistics, Venezuela's iron ore resources are approximately 14.68 billion tons, with proven reserves of 3.63 billion tons. It is mainly distributed in the Imataka iron ore belt, with the iron-bearing minerals being hematite and magnetite. There are a total of five operating mines near the Piar City area. The characteristics of Venezuelan iron ore are high grade and less impurities.
Gold mines: According to incomplete statistics, Venezuela's predicted gold reserves are approximately 792 tons, ranking fourth in the world. Gold resources are mainly distributed in Bolivar State, and are most concentrated in the southeastern and eastern regions bordering Brazil and Guyana, mainly placer gold. Although Venezuela is rich in mineral resources, due to multiple factors, both the actual output and export volume of its mineral resources are relatively small.
Reactions from all parties and possible subsequent developments
Domestic divisions in the United States have once again come to the fore. The Trump administration bypassed congressional authorization to take action directly. After the action, Trump issued threats to Cuba and Colombia at a White House press conference, suggesting that the United States might expand its focus from Venezuela to more countries, demonstrating a strong stance. Some Democratic lawmakers have raised doubts about the legality and other aspects of this military strike and called for the removal of President Trump from office. However, judging from the outcome of this operation, the Democratic Party's control in the United States is on the decline. Venezuela's Vice President Rodriguez has been authorized to take over the interim government. However, Venezuela's Defense Minister Padino controls the military, and the president of the United Socialist Party, Cabello, holds the paramilitarian organization. It remains to be seen whether Rodriguez can smoothly balance the various forces within Venezuela and restore national order in the short term. The most ideal and relatively more likely scenario would be a rapid rise of a pro-American regime in Venezuela. However, if the internal situation in Venezuela gets out of control, it may lead to a longer period of stagnation in domestic production and imports and exports than expected, and even trigger a refugee crisis, threatening the border security of neighboring countries. In response, Colombia directly activated border control and refugee emergency response plans. China, Brazil, Russia, Chile, France and other countries have all issued condemnations, but most of them have used relatively restrained language. The United States has packaged this operation as an enforcement action that is "not a war", blurring the line between war and law enforcement, bypassing the United Nations at will, disregarding the principle of sovereignty of other countries, and superimposing its ambition for broader resources in the Latin American region. In the long run, this may increase the probability of geopolitical conflicts.
