Analysts have raised their LME aluminum price forecast for 2026 by 3% due to supply concerns
October 28, 2025
A survey shows that analysts have generally raised their expectations for aluminum prices in 2026 due to supply concerns.
According to the median forecast of 30 analysts, the average spot price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) will reach $2,679 per ton in 2026, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous prediction in July.
So far this year, the LME aluminum benchmark price has risen by 14%, which is partly driven by supply concerns as China, the largest producer, has seen its output very close to the government's annual cap of 45 million tons.
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Sudakhina Unichirshinan said that a series of dynamic factors in terms of cost and supply might support aluminum prices in the medium and long term.
Meanwhile, the demand outlook for aluminium remains optimistic, especially from the renewable energy sector.
Analysts have lowered their forecast for a global aluminum supply surplus in 2026 from 281,500 tons predicted in July to 250,000 tons.
