According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's alumina production in November 2025 was 7.495 million tons, an increase of 4.96% year-on-year. The average daily output was 249,800 tons, which is a decrease of 400 tons compared to the 250,200 tons per day in October 2025. Alumina supply in November decreased compared to October. A certain alumina plant in Shanxi underwent equipment maintenance, reducing operational capacity by 400,000 tons. Additionally, some alumina enterprises reduced their daily output due to environmental protection reasons or scheduled maintenance of calcining furnaces. Furthermore, due to fewer days in November, the total supply of alumina for the month was lower than in October.
Currently, some alumina enterprises are operating at a loss, but considering long-term contract signings, there is low willingness among companies to reduce production. As more long-term contracts are signed, some companies may slightly cut back on production. Meanwhile, affected by winter heating season environmental controls, alumina calcination volumes in northern enterprises will also experience phased reductions. However, it is expected that any reduction in production will progress slowly, offering limited support to prices. Moreover, high levels of alumina inventory further limit upward price pressure. It is forecasted that China’s alumina industry daily output in December 2025 will be slightly lower than in November, with domestic alumina production estimated to be around 7.7 million tons.
2. Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Comparison of Alumina-Electrolytic Aluminum in China for November 2025
Statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum show that China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production in November 2025 was 7.495 million tons. Calculated based on actual port arrivals (not customs declaration times), imports of alumina into China were 179,500 tons. Exports, calculated based on departure times (not customs declaration times), amounted to 165,500 tons. Approximately 190,000 tons were used for non-metallurgical purposes. China’s electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6597 million tons. Based on a consumption ratio of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, there was an oversupply of 255,800 tons of alumina in November, indicating an ongoing surplus in the alumina market.
3. Forecast of Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Comparison of Alumina-Electrolytic Aluminum in China for December 2025
Yuefeng Aluminum predicts that China’s alumina production in December 2025 will be approximately 7.7 million tons, with about 180,000 tons used for non-aluminum purposes. Regarding imports, it is estimated that alumina imports in December will be around 162,000 tons, while exports will be around 210,000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be about 3.785 million tons. Based on the consumption ratio of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, it is predicted that there will be an oversupply of 167,000 tons of alumina in December, indicating that the alumina market will still have a slight surplus.
