EIU: Global primary aluminum demand and supply will maintain growth in 2024-2026
December 21, 2024
According to foreign news on December 17, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its monthly outlook report that global primary aluminum demand will maintain growth in 2024-2026, but the share of scrap metal demand will be squeezed, and global supply will also maintain growth.
requirement
We expect global primary aluminum demand to grow by 2.5% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. One of the biggest threats to primary aluminium demand over the forecast period is that these projected growth rates of more than 2% are captured by a larger share of scrap metal.
supply
We expect production to exceed 70 million tonnes for the first time this year, i.e. 72.3 million tonnes in 2024, 73.2 million tonnes in 2025 and 74 million tonnes in 2026. We raise our 2024 production forecast for China, adjusting for year-to-date growth, while lowering our 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for Russia. We have not yet factored in additional production disruptions due to raw material supply issues, but acknowledge that some high-cost smelters may decide to reduce production and opt to sell alumina supply contracts to the open market.
