Entering March, the market gradually picked up, the aluminum market entered the traditional consumption season, and new orders in various market segments increased, but there are certain differences in the performance of different market segments. Air conditioners, refrigerators and other household appliances enterprises have good production, driving aluminum radiators and other consumption; The strong performance of the new energy vehicle market drives the consumption of aluminum plate belts and aluminum wheels; In contrast, aluminum in the construction sector is still dragged down by the downturn in the real estate market. Guangdong is a large province of construction aluminum profiles in China, and Foshan is particularly concentrated. In order to understand the current situation and downstream order changes of aluminum profile enterprises in Foshan area, the local representative aluminum processing enterprises and traders were investigated.
Research conclusion:
Compared with the same period last year, the orders of most small and medium-sized aluminum processing enterprises fell year-on-year, while the orders of large aluminum processing enterprises were relatively stable. Different segments of the market also have obvious differences, the traditional aluminum door and window products mainly small processing enterprises overall performance is weak, the shrinkage of the situation is more obvious, on the one hand and the terminal real estate market depression related; On the other hand, small aluminum processing enterprises generally lack funds, and the long payment cycle leads to their capital turnover difficulties. Some small processing plants passively withdraw from the market, at the same time, there are also many new processing plants to join, which are mainly to cultivate very small market segments. Foshan aluminum profile factory is also trying to transform, but the transformation is generally difficult, and the competitiveness of the aluminum industrial material market is less than that of the East China market. Compared with building profiles, industrial aluminum profiles orders are relatively good, but there are also problems with the account period factory and the remittance cycle factory, and market competition is equally fierce. Overall, although the aluminum profile market in Foshan is less than the same period last year, the trend of seasonal warming still exists, and the operating rate has risen steadily overall.
Research analysis:
According to the data of the local aluminum processing industry association, the aluminum extrusion capacity of the region mainly radiating to the periphery of Foshan is about 4-5 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the country, and the historical peak capacity once exceeded 6 million tons, accounting for more than 50% of the country. In Guangdong aluminum extrusion material, the construction aluminum profile production capacity accounts for about 80%, and the industrial aluminum profile production capacity is about 20%. Therefore, the local aluminum profile market largely reflects the actual situation of the national construction aluminum profile market. The domestic real estate market continues to be depressed, although the combination of policies in 2024 has eased the downward trend of the market to a certain extent, but the market is still in the process of bottoming out. In the first two months of 2025, various indicators of the domestic real estate market continued to decline sharply, and the year-on-year decline in the new housing construction area expanded significantly. The weakness of the real estate market on Foshan construction aluminum profile consumption drag significantly, the local construction aluminum profile orders compared with the same period last year generally declined, but compared with February there is still a significant recovery trend, the overall steady recovery of orders. Peak season consumption is generally resilient, and acceptance of price increases is steadily increasing. However, there is a certain negative feedback on the rapid rise in aluminum prices, which is reflected in the decline in the amount of goods received.
The raw materials of aluminum profile production enterprises are mainly aluminum rods, of which the construction aluminum profile production enterprises mainly purchase 6063 aluminum rods, and the rise and fall of aluminum rod processing fees reflects the willingness of aluminum profile enterprises to purchase, and reflects the order situation of aluminum profile enterprises to a greater extent. In February, consumption was still in a slow recovery stage, aluminum rod inventories continued to rise, and processing fees weakened. In March, the recovery of aluminum profile consumption increased, aluminum rod inventories declined, and processing fees also stabilized. However, the sharp rise in aluminum prices has inhibited the willingness of aluminum profile companies and the end market to receive goods, making aluminum rod processing fees gradually weaker. Recently, the acceptance of downstream aluminum prices has gradually increased, aluminum profile consumption has further warmed, and aluminum rod processing fees have also stabilized and rebounded.
Research summary
Aluminum processing enterprise A
The existing production capacity of aluminum profiles is about 650,000 tons, of which construction aluminum profiles account for about 80% and industrial aluminum profiles account for about 20%. The actual output of industrial aluminum profiles is about 100,000 tons/year. The transformation of the enterprise was relatively early, and it entered industrial aluminum profiles in 2016. Industrial aluminum profile production is planned to increase by 30% in 2025. Industrial aluminum profiles are also based on automotive aluminum profiles, including radiators, battery shells, pallets, etc., and also produce aluminum profiles for rail transit.
A new factory, 25 extruding machines, mainly building materials, investment of 5 billion. It is planned to produce 100,000 tons after it is put into operation in 2025.
The company's construction aluminum profiles are basically sold by dealers, with stable dealers and a relatively mature model. Since mid-March, there has been a seasonal rebound in dealer orders.
Industrial materials are less directly sold to the downstream, although Ningde Times, BYD and other companies have purchased products, but the account period is long. Small and medium-sized enterprises have the problem of poor capital flow, and the account period is also a trend of extension. Sales on the day of aluminum prices plus processing fees, there are also monthly average prices, weekly average prices, etc.
Corporate view: The downturn in the real estate market has a negative impact on the consumption of construction aluminum profiles, but consumption has stabilized, and the season will improve. Cautiously optimistic about the future.
Aluminum processing enterprise B
Aluminum template production enterprises, the maximum annual output of 3 million cubic meters. In 2024, the output is 1.5 million cubic meters, the turnover is 14 billion, and the output is planned to be 2 million cubic meters in 2025. 50% of the company's raw materials come from recycled aluminum templates.
The market has shown a positive trend of improvement, and construction projects have increased to a certain extent.
Corporate view: The downturn in the real estate market has a certain impact on the aluminum template market, but it is expected to gradually stabilize this year.
Aluminum rod manufacturer C
The factory is located in Guizhou, connecting with the local electrolytic aluminum plant aluminum water casting rod. Four melting furnaces, full production of 16,000 tons/month. The contract with the aluminum plant is to digest 10,000 tons of aluminum water per month. Some scrap aluminum is also purchased, mainly for cooling during smelting. Factory normal inventory of 6000 tons.
The recovery of downstream aluminum profile consumption lags behind this year. In previous years, on the tenth day of the first month, work generally resumed, and on the fifteenth day of the first month this year, workers were slowly in place, and the recovery of downstream factory orders was less than expected. Aluminum rod processing fee has been more than 100 yuan/ton.
Corporate view: not optimistic about the construction aluminum market, there will be many small and medium-sized traders will passively withdraw from the market. The company is actively transforming on the basis of maintaining the scale of spot operation.
Trader D
The traders under the group agree that the monthly sales volume of aluminum rods is 50,000-60,000 tons, and the downstream customers are mainly industrial materials, and the products are more customized, only a small amount of building materials, and the processing cost is higher than that of ordinary aluminum rods. The production of the company's aluminum rod plant is stable, so the trade volume is basically stable. Recently, there has been a certain increase in downstream construction, but it is not as good as the same period in previous years. Feedback Most small and medium-sized aluminum profile enterprises operating rate is relatively low, large aluminum profile enterprises are not full.
Corporate view: Aluminum prices are generally bullish, and capacity ceiling restrictions are the main driver. Although there is news of capacity liberalization in Xinjiang, it is unlikely. Guangdong is dominated by building profiles, and consumption is generally not good. But east China market feedback is good. Aluminum prices are bullish in the long term, but short-term gains may not be large.
Trader E
Aluminum ingot, aluminum rod trade, to Fengaluminum, Weiye and other local aluminum profile enterprises supply, the monthly trade volume of more than 10,000 tons. The volume of trade has shrunk compared with previous years, but there is still a seasonal rebound trend. Every year before the Spring Festival holiday will store a certain amount of aluminum ingots, even if not value, after the holiday price rebound to sell one after another. The daily stock is less.
Enterprise view: aluminum has a capacity ceiling, and aluminum application scenarios, in the context of domestic economic recovery, further growth in consumption, aluminum is suitable for bargain buying, medium and long term 21500 is also possible, short-term chase is not suitable.
Aluminum processing enterprise F
The annual production capacity is more than 500,000 tons, and the construction aluminum is the main material, accounting for more than 70%, of which about 50% is the curtain wall. In recent years, the proportion of industrial profiles has also been increased, but the increase is slow. The first two years of industrial profiles are mainly photovoltaic profiles, but the market is too voluminous. Photovoltaic profiles to 6061, the company developed 6065 total photovoltaic profiles, photovoltaic profiles last year 50,000-60,000 tons, this year compression, due to low profits, accounts, the proportion of photovoltaic profiles is very small. Automotive aluminum profiles are also produced, but the proportion is relatively small. The direction is to turn to the direction of industrial materials, but the transformation is uncertain. The overall output has not changed much in the past two years, and it is generally stable in 2025.
Post-holiday orders were worse than the same period last year, worse year on year, but slightly better than the second half of last year. Although it is recovering, the recovery is not strong. The main reason is the poor housing market.
Procurement: I have purchased aluminum ingots in Yunnan and Guizhou to produce aluminum rods, but the cost is high, and it is currently commissioned to customize the production of rods. The variety of external aluminum rod is unstable. The price is generally locked with the supplier, and the supplier is hedging. The stock of raw materials is generally used for one day. Rarely keep stock.
Sales are based on the distributor agent model. The dealer places the order and manufactures it to order. Exports are not large, tens of thousands of tons/year, affected by the trade war, exports have declined. After the abolition of export tax rebates, overseas buyers gradually accepted the price increase because of the shortage of overseas industries. The Southeast Asian market is more price sensitive.
Corporate view: The high-end market is sinking, and the industry reshuffle is cruel. Every year, there will be small profile factories shut down, there are also some small industrial material companies orders are relatively full, a small market segment. The consumption of industrial materials in some single areas is growing, but the market volume is small.
The fluctuation of aluminum price in the range has little impact on the profile factory, and the profile factory mainly earns processing fees. It's not a problem as long as the demand is there. The current demand is weak, and the current price is high from the perspective of building materials demand. However, the demand for building materials market has a lower weight on aluminum prices. At present, the demand for building materials is in the floor state, and the price correction consumption will rise, but the price will fall a lot of consumption will not increase a lot.
Non-ferrous metal processing, trade, storage and other service enterprises H
Purchase scrap copper production anode copper supply to refineries, while producing copper rods. The monthly import of 1000 tons of copper scrap, copper scrap trade volume of about 2000 tons/month, mainly transit trade. In 2024, the trade volume of aluminum ingots is about 400,000 tons, mainly in the East China market, mainly to the downstream production of auto parts supply. The overall trade volume shrank, and the trade volume of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods dropped from 15,000-20,000 tons/month to 12,000-13,000 tons/month. At present, aluminum ingots and aluminum rod sales are weak compared with the same period last year, and March has improved compared with February.
Sales: The anode copper long single is sold to the copper refinery, and 60-70% of the copper rod is sold directly to the downstream.
Aluminum copper: aluminum cables for millet cars, and many unknown air conditioning copper pipes are covered in aluminum. Copper pipes for air conditioners are getting thinner.
Corporate view: Overall consumption in 2024 is not as good as expected. Considering that the Spring Festival is earlier than in previous years, there is no outstanding performance of aluminum to the library. Copper to the warehouse also need to wait and see whether it will continue. Market acceptance of prices is on the rise. Domestic recycled copper can not see a large amount of release. The copper scrap stored at last year's high price is not appropriate and will not be released. The copper price is relatively optimistic, the specific high level depends on the capital, whether there will be resonance at home and abroad. If there is a recession in the United States, the collapse of copper in the United States will be self-inflicted.
Copper processing enterprise I
The factory mainly produces copper pipes, and the group also produces copper bar rows and copper sheet strips, with a total capacity of 180,000 tons and an actual output of 120,000 tons. The copper pipe plant has a production capacity of nearly 90,000 tons, 45% of which is copper pipe and the rest is copper plate and strip products. It also produces 300-400 tons of 6101 aluminum bars per month. The output has not changed much in the past two years.
Purchase: Purchase to order, will not stock up because of low copper prices.
Sales: Copper pipes are mostly sold through dealer channels, and there is no direct supply of copper pipes to Midea and Gree, but it is responsible for relevant after-sales. Air conditioning companies put the price is very low, and there is a debt period. At present, it is the copper pipe peak season, which will probably last until May to June, and then the rod row orders will take over.
Orders fell 30% in May-June 2024 when copper prices soared. 2025 orders slightly worse, customer feedback is not good. Competition is fierce and processing costs are depressed.
Business view: Cautiously optimistic about consumption. In recent years, aluminum substitute copper has increased, but the performance of copper determines its many irreplaceable places. Domestic air conditioning enterprises or copper pipe is mostly used. The recent rise in copper prices is mainly affected by US tariffs, and there is a high degree of caution about price increases.
