Goldman Sachs: Copper exports to the United States are expected to increase before the 50% copper import tariff is imposed
July 10, 2025
On Wednesday, July 9th, Goldman Sachs said that copper exports to the United States are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks after US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper.
After Trump announced this plan, the copper futures price on COMEX(the New York Mercantile Exchange in the United States) rose by more than 12%, reaching a record high. According to CNBC, after the cabinet meeting, US Commerce Secretary Ruttnik said that the Commerce Department has completed an investigation into the copper import situation and he expects the new tariffs "may be implemented at the end of July or on August 1."
Goldman Sachs said in its report that it has raised its forecast for the benchmark copper import tariff on the United States from the previous 25% to 50%.
Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price at $9,700 per ton in December 2025 unchanged, but currently believes that the risk of the price breaking through $10,000 in the third quarter has decreased.
Goldman Sachs expects that the LME copper price will only experience a small consecutive decline. As markets outside the United States remain in a state of tight supply, the reduction in inventories in the United States and the easing of supply tensions in other regional markets are expected to gradually emerge after the end of the third quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, Citigroup also expects that the United States will confirm a 50% copper import tariff under Section 232 within a few weeks, and it is expected to be implemented within 30 days.
Citigroup said, "We believe this is a watershed for the copper market in 2025, as the upcoming tariffs will suddenly close the window for further large-scale copper exports to the United States (possibly for the remainder of 2025)."
Citigroup added that this would lead to a decline in copper prices outside the United States, which are expected to fall back to $8,800 per ton in the next three months.
