Goldman Sachs: In extreme scenarios, the average price of aluminum on the LME in 2026 will reach $3,400 per ton.
March 31, 2026
On Monday, March 30th, Goldman Sachs warned that in an extreme scenario where Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar completely cease production, the global aluminum supply gap for the second quarter of this year would widen to 2 million tons, and the average LME aluminum price in 2026 would reach $3,400 per ton.
Goldman Sachs predicts that global primary aluminum demand will increase by only 0.1% year-on-year in 2026, significantly lower than the 2.7% growth rate last year. The bank expects that there will be a 550,000-ton surplus in the global aluminum market in 2026.
