Goldman Sachs: The increase in aluminum prices will depend on the duration of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
March 3, 2026
On Monday, March 2nd, investment bank Goldman Sachs stated that the greatest risk facing the aluminum price comes from potential disruptions to the export route through the Strait of Hormuz and the supply of raw materials. It also pointed out that if the shipping disruption is temporary, the impact on the price should be limited.
The LME's three-month aluminum futures price reached its highest level in a month. The attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran have intensified market concerns about the persistence of conflicts in the Middle East, where aluminum is an important production region.
The CCTV News App reported that on the night of March 2nd, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will strike all ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the aluminum produced in the Middle East is exported to the United States and Europe. Goldman Sachs stated in a report that the price of aluminum has already exceeded the reasonable value, and if the disruption lasts for one month, the price of aluminum may continue to rise significantly.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the one-month complete production disruption in this region will reduce the global aluminum inventory from 51 days to 48 days in the first quarter of 2026. Coupled with the soaring energy prices, this might temporarily push the price up to $360 per ton, which is approximately $400 higher than the current spot price.
The bank further stated that its baseline estimate is that the average price of LME three-month aluminum for the first half of this year will be $3,150 per tonne, and it also pointed out that there is expected to be significant room for an increase in the aluminum premium in Europe.
