In recent years, the 6063 aluminum rod processing fee in the Foshan market has changed the rhythm of low hovering in the early period, and has continued to show a strong upward market. Under the atmosphere of holding prices, local processing fees are gradually climbing, and some high values are approaching the point of 600 or 700.
In early November, the domestic spot aluminum price returned to the 2W1 mark, and the processing fee fell rapidly under the pressure of the high aluminum price, and the relatively low value hit the flat water price. Subsequently, the price of aluminum turned downward, and the decline was rapid, in this case, the holder began to raise the operation, the processing fees gradually got rid of the low swamp, and the operation continued to rise step by step.
In the face of the rebound and fluctuation of 6063 aluminum rod processing fees in the Foshan market, Yuefeng Aluminum through the integration and analysis of various data, the cause is still around the intersection of aluminum prices, supply and demand in the current period.
First of all, let's take a look at the recent movement of spot aluminum prices. In the early days of the National Day, aluminum prices rose again to 2W after hovering for a long time, and after the holiday, aluminum prices continued to show the pace of shock upward, and at that time, Foshan aluminum rod processing fees have been in a weak line of pressure pattern, double-digit processing fees quote one after another, follow-up aluminum prices high volatility, processing fees have always been Mired in a range of one or two hundred price fluctuations.
In November, aluminum prices rose and fell, processing fees were able to breathe, and when aluminum prices fell, cargo holders showed a certain willingness to increase, so far, processing fees have gradually opened this round of upward channel.
Secondly, the supply situation, although in recent years, the proportion of Foshan market auto directly sent to the factory is increasing, especially more than 90% of the supply in the southwest region flowed into Guangdong through this way, but relatively speaking, Foshan local still maintains some fixed brand of supply into the social public warehouse. From the perspective of the variables of the aluminum rod community warehouse in Foshan after the National Day holiday, the overall process of inventory reduction, as of the end of November 2024, the current Foshan aluminum rod community warehouse 25,500 tons, a month-on-month reduction of 32.89%, a year-on-year reduction of 36.25%.
The reduction of Foshan aluminum rod community warehouse, on the one hand, lies in some regional shipments blocked, the arrival of less inventory, on the other hand, due to the two aluminum price difference this year, the proportion of some northern goods into the Guangdong market weakened compared with previous years, in addition, such as Guangxi, Guizhou and other places of supply also appeared in the outflow to East China. This also reduces the probability of passive warehousing of such automobile transportation sources.
Then, on the demand side, according to Mysteel's statistics for more than 10 aluminum rod spot traders in the Guangdong market, during November, the total weekly aluminum rod shipments of sample enterprises were overall in an increasing rhythm. In mid-November, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to cancel some aluminum export tax rebates, affected by this, the local downstream processing enterprises have appeared to catch up with the situation, which has also boosted the enthusiasm of the profile factory for raw aluminum rods, and some of the designated brands and specifications of aluminum rods are once spread the voice of shortage.
In addition, through Yuefeng Aluminum's weekly capacity utilization data statistics for aluminum profile sample enterprises, we can also see relatively intuitively that the recent start-up operation of the profile factory is relatively in the process of stable and slightly improved, but it is still less than the same period last year.
Although the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee boom is still continuing, but there are some signs of cooling at present, and for the next trend, the market is not too optimistic.
First, the high recognition of processing fees is limited, although the daily transaction on the way, the initial offer is still relatively strong, but the way down the operation has been heard, and some of the frequency and amplitude of price adjustment has also been enhanced, the acceptance of the market high value is low, some downstream enterprises have such a price processing fees might as well purchase aluminum ingots to remelt cost-effective feedback, at the same time, The recent continuous fluctuation of aluminum prices has prompted the wait-and-see mood of enterprises to be strong, and the process of holding goods has also revealed difficulties.
Second, the price difference between the two aluminum prices at this stage is basically reversed, and the operation of the supply of goods in some regions of East China has also temporarily come to an end, at the same time, the current aluminum rod output in the southwest is relatively stable, and the social inventory of aluminum rods in Foshan is now reduced to increase, and the market supply is abundant.
Third, the export tax rebate policy was officially implemented, the previous rush order phenomenon also faded, through Yuefeng aluminum for the Guangdong market aluminum rod spot traders sample shipment data statistics, in recent days the quantification of transactions has declined, individual enterprises reduced by more than 50%, and the daily trading is not smooth, shipping feedback frequently, while the downstream enterprises to buy description, There is already speculation about whether some profile companies have been on holiday, although it seems to be a joke, but in fact, it also reflects the current demand for the face of fatigue.
Fourth, to the end of the year, most enterprises need to return as soon as possible this month, year-end settlement, but the current trading atmosphere, if you want to continue to maintain high processing fees, or realization efficiency will be greatly reduced, especially the long single task is relatively heavy cargo holders, it is necessary to step up the volume, high processing fees are bound to loosen adjustment.
Today, the processing fee initial price of five or six hundred, but after the price adjustment and negotiation on the way, the transaction price of more than 400 yuan is countless, and the voice of individual 3 characters is gradually heard, combined with the same period in previous years, Foshan market 6063 aluminum rod processing fee track, is expected to be the next high price of no market feeling more and more enhanced, and the heat of processing fees will gradually weaken, The price of three or four hundred will later become the mainstream, and under the continuous fetters of aluminum prices, supply and demand, there is also a theoretical probability that lower prices will appear.
