Home - News - LME aluminum \" earthquake \" heavy bearish suspected large foreign stocks hit the plate alert to the external "tsunami" impact of Shanghai aluminum
LME aluminum \" earthquake \" heavy bearish suspected large foreign stocks hit the plate alert to the external "tsunami" impact of Shanghai aluminum
May 11, 2024
All of a sudden! After the end of the Asian trading session on May 10, Beijing time, the LME official aluminum inventory suddenly "big earthquake". Overnight, the LME aluminum inventory added 425,575 tons of inventory, the daily increment and increment hit the highest record since the daily release of statistics, pushing the LUN aluminum inventory to nearly double, reaching a high of 903,850 tons, a level since January 2022. What is more surprising is that all the inventory increase comes from a single region, Asia's Port Klang, Malaysia, and the port due to its proximity to China, is regarded by the industry as an important distribution center for aluminum trade in Asia closely related to China and Russia, focusing on the negative impact of the tsunami caused by the sub-Lun aluminum earthquake inventory transfer on the domestic electrolytic aluminum and alumina represented by the nonferrous futures market.
From the impact of the "earthquake magnitude" news, the market's first time to change the reaction situation, Lun aluminum intraday from $2,589.5 / ton once dived 2% to $2,537 / ton, the domestic and foreign markets on Lun aluminum inventory may trigger a large earthquake price decline has obvious "tsunami warning" panic concerns. Due to the continuous macroeconomic policy stimulus at home and abroad since the lunar Year of the Dragon, the impact of geopolitical changes on economy and trade, the switch of risk preference, and the focus of funds on commodities, the price of strategic metal raw materials represented by international gold, silver, copper and aluminum has been extremely strong, and the price of domestic relevant raw materials has generally increased by 10%-30%. At the same time, May 10 Asian time international gold, silver, copper and aluminum prices were originally strong, but by the impact of the unexpected sudden LME inventory changes, the market in the face of the LME represented by the international market "inventory game" changes a surprise, although the current LME disk performance has not seen a big impact, but it is expected to be optimistic about international nonferrous resources formed a significant suppression.
According to the market source information of the research parties, the probability of the surge in Lun aluminum inventory is a large international bulk trade complex action, and the probability is that the Russian aluminum spot has been further sanctioned by the United Kingdom and the United States. Historical data show that since January 2014 LME inventory reached the highest level of 5.5 million tons, LME aluminum inventory in the past 10 years has shown an oscillating decline trend, the 10-year average inventory remains at about 700,000 tons, and the lowest is 271,400 tons in August 2022, so it can be said that after the current inventory increased 420,000 tons to 900,000 tons overnight, Before the market to do more logic of low inventory theme has been obviously broken, after early April by Russian aluminum was affected by a new round of sanctions in the United States and Britain, Lun aluminum prices rose significantly, once touched a high of $2700 / ton, after the price center of gravity came to $2500 / ton line, the current Lun aluminum inventory surge will suppress the price, promote the previous increase further back.
In terms of the domestic, the recent stage of Shanghai aluminum futures around 20000 yuan/ton integer mark above the operation, especially in consideration of the domestic aluminum ingots to the warehouse, the demand side has policy support expectations, the internal aluminum price originally continued to shock the strong trend, but the current in the Lun aluminum inventory surge after the formation of external bullish sentiment against the background of obvious pressure, This time, Lun Aluminum will pour cold water on the sentiment of commodities in the inner market, especially the colored varieties represented by Shanghai aluminum and alumina are likely to be dragged down, short-term Shanghai aluminum futures are concerned about 20,000 yuan/ton and 19,500 yuan/ton below the support, aluminum futures are concerned about 3,700 yuan/ton and 3,600 yuan/ton below the support. It is expected that the current round of impact on China's domestic aluminum fundamentals will be relatively stronger than the overseas market, short-term special vigilance to pay attention to the follow-up changes in LME inventory, especially investors represented by long nonferrous metals to pay attention to profit risk control.
