Regarding production cuts:
In Henan region: Company A has a capacity transfer plan in the future. Due to cost pressure at the end of 2024, it plans to reduce its production capacity by 80,000 tons in advance. Among them, 55,000 tons will be reduced by the end of 2024, and the production reduction plan will continue to be implemented in January 2025, with another reduction of 25,000 tons.
Shandong region: B capacity transfer to Yunnan plan, reducing part of the capacity, involving 690,000 tons of capacity.
In Shanxi region: At the beginning of 2025, the price of alumina remained at a high level. Company C stated that the cost pressure was still significant. It reduced production for maintenance in January 2025, affecting its production capacity by 20,000 tons. Subsequently, it expanded the maintenance scale and reduced production by a total of 50,000 tons in 2025.
In Guizhou region: After the net capacity increase of Enterprise D is completed and put into operation, the old electrolytic cells will be replaced, involving a reduction of 120,000 tons of production capacity.
In Qinghai region: Enterprise E is replacing its electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the spot, involving a reduction of 400,000 tons of production capacity.
As of now, Chinese electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by 1.285 million tons in 2025.
Regarding resumption of production:
In 2025, electrolytic aluminum enterprises will mainly resume production capacity that was reduced at the end of 2024 due to cost pressure. Among them, 35,000 tons from G Enterprise in Guangxi region, 20,000 tons from H enterprise in Shanxi region, a total of 225,000 tons from Sichuan region, and 20,000 tons from I enterprise in Xinjiang region will be involved, accounting for 55% of the total resumed production capacity.
In 2024, when costs were at a high level, F Enterprise in Guangxi took the opportunity to carry out maintenance. After the maintenance was completed in 2025, it resumed production, involving a capacity of 100,000 tons.
At the end of 2024, under the pressure of costs, some enterprises have also postponed their resumption of production plans, involving J Enterprise in Guizhou region and K enterprise in Sichuan region. With the decline in alumina prices, these enterprises will continue to implement their resumption plans in 2025 and complete the release of planned production capacity. Among them, Enterprise J will have a capacity of 85,000 tons and Enterprise K will have a capacity of 60,000 tons.
As of now, China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed production of 545,000 tons in 2025.
In terms of newly put into production
In Guizhou region: The net increase in production capacity of Enterprise D will be replaced by Shandong. Additionally, the remaining production capacity of this enterprise is undergoing technological transformation. Therefore, in 2025, the production of old electrolytic cells will be reduced and some new electrolytic cells will be put into use. Overall, by 2025, the enterprise had put 135,000 tons into production, with a net increase of 15,000 tons in capacity.
In Qinghai region: Enterprise E will start to release its net increase in production capacity by the end of 2024. The increase within 2024 will be extremely limited. The remaining 90,000 tons of production capacity will be fully put into operation by 2025, and the old electrolytic cells will be replaced on the spot. The total production capacity put into operation will be 490,000 tons.
Yunnan region: M Enterprise released net increased production capacity, involving a capacity of 30,000 tons. In addition, the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity from Shandong region to Yunnan region involves a total of 690,000 tons of capacity from N and O enterprises, which has no impact on the total number of operating capacity in the industry as a whole.
As of now, China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises have put 1.345 million tons into operation in 2025, among which the net increase in capacity is 135,000 tons, accounting for 10% of the newly put into operation capacity.
Follow-up to 2025
By 2025, there are plans for net capacity increase and commissioning of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
In summary, it is estimated that by the end of 2025, the theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry will reach 44.24 million tons, an increase of 854,000 tons compared with 43.386 million tons as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth rate of 1.97%. It is estimated that China's primary aluminium output will reach 44 million tons in 2025, an increase of approximately 800,000 tons compared to 43.2166 million tons in 2024, representing a growth rate of 1.81%.
