New disturbances have emerged at the Guinea mining end. SMM reported that, according to overseas sources, on November 6, 2025, A letter signed by Aboubacar Korouma, the secretary-general of the Ministry of Mines, ordered AGB2A-GIC and SD Mining to withdraw all mining equipment from the original mining license area of Axis Minerals by November 10, and the resumption of production at the mining area has once again reached a deadlock. However, the market response to this was rather lackluster, which was different from the reaction brought about by the disturbance at the mining end in Guinea in May.
In May this year, information about the revocation of mining licenses once led to a sharp increase in the futures price of alumina. At that time, the Guinean government ordered the revocation of industrial and semi-industrial mining licenses of over 40 mining companies. The Guinean Mining Authority sent personnel to the Axis mining area to issue a work stoppage order, ordering the mining equipment in the operating mines to suspend operations, and all mining was forced to come to a complete halt. This mining area includes mining companies such as Shunda Mining, with an annual production capacity of approximately 40 million tons. This action is a further escalation of the issue where the Guinean government announced the revocation of mining licenses for some mines. This incident raised concerns in the market at that time about the disruption of bauxite supply. Coupled with the reduction in the supply of alumina, the futures price of alumina rose sharply, with many contracts touching the daily limit up.
The market's lackluster response to the news from the Guinean mining sector this time stems from the market's reassessment of the bauxite supply pattern. According to SMM's research and calculation, in 2026, with the commissioning of new projects in Guinea and the expansion of existing ones, the withdrawal of equipment from the AXIS mining area is unlikely to reverse the situation of oversupply. The net increase in bauxite supply in the Guinea region for the entire year could reach 25 million tons. It is expected that the supply of imported bauxite from China will further increase, and the impact on the price of imported bauxite from Guinea will be relatively limited.
From the perspective of bauxite imports, the Guinean government revoked a large number of mining licenses at the end of May, which led to a continued decline in the shipment volume of Guinean mines from mid-July to mid-August. Coupled with the impact of the traditional rainy season in Guinea on mining operations, the import volume in September decreased compared with the previous month. Customs data shows that China's total imports of bauxite reached 15.88 million tons in September, a 13.2% decrease from the previous month and a 37.5% increase year-on-year. In September, 10.49 million tons of bauxite imported by China came from Guinea, a decrease of 14.9% month-on-month and an increase of 56.8% year-on-year. This year, China's cumulative imports from Guinea reached 118.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.0%, which drove the year-on-year growth of cumulative bauxite imports this year. Although Guinea revoked a large number of mine licenses after May this year, and the shipment of mines slowed down, the rapid growth of mine shipments in the first five months still led to a significant increase in cumulative imports compared with last year.
In addition, according to Mysteel's calculation, as of September, the cumulative import volume of bauxite this year reached 157.63 million tons, an increase of 31.8% year-on-year, while China's cumulative output of alumina this year was 68.836 million tons, an increase of 9.82% year-on-year. Overall, the growth rate of cumulative bauxite imports this year is higher than that of cumulative alumina production. Currently, the bauxite market is in a state of oversupply. Therefore, even if there are disturbances in the Guinea mining area, it is unlikely to change the loose situation of bauxite in the short term and will not significantly boost alumina.
Recently, there have been multiple favorable factors on the supply side. As the profits of the alumina industry continue to contract, some alumina plants have already suffered losses. With the decline in the downstream's willingness to purchase and replenish inventories, producers are concerned about future sales and inventory pressures. Besides long-term orders to ensure supply, some enterprises have taken measures to reduce production. In addition, in some areas of the north, due to the influence of polluted weather, environmental protection production restrictions have begun. There are periodic maintenance situations of roasting furnaces, and the short-term release of production is restricted. The market's expectation of continued production cuts on the supply side of alumina provides some support for futures prices. However, the current oversupply situation remains unchanged. Coupled with the ongoing import pressure and the expectation of new production capacity release, it exerts pressure on alumina prices. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side in the future.
