Industry News: 1. The US-Iran negotiations are confusing. Iran has clearly rejected the US ceasefire proposal, while the White House spokesperson claims that the US-Iran negotiations are still ongoing and productive. US House Speaker Johnson stated that the war in Iran is "close to ending and the goal has been achieved", and that the US military's concentration in the Middle East is a warning to Iran, and will not engage in ground operations. An Iranian military source said that if the enemy attempts to take ground actions on Iranian islands or other territories, Iran may open other fronts. Iran has made full preparations for further escalation of the situation. Two senior US government officials said that the US is trying to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss the "exit plan" for the US war against Iran. 2. The Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations issued a statement saying that ships of non-combatant countries can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Group announced that it has resumed booking services to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq (general containers). However, COSCO Shipping Group's ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the time being, but will be transported to ports outside the Persian Gulf and then transferred by land to the destination port. 3. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council had a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister Joutin. Li Qiang said that China is willing to work with the Netherlands to consolidate political mutual trust, adhere to mutual respect, equality dialogue, better leverage the role of economic and trade, science and technology, and other dialogue mechanisms, further explore the potential for cooperation in green and innovative fields, and achieve a higher level of mutual benefit and win-win results. It is hoped that the Netherlands will play an active role in promoting the healthy and stable development of China-EU relations. 4. According to the National Energy Administration, as of the end of February, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, an increase of 33.2% year-on-year; the installed capacity of wind power was 6.5 billion kilowatts, an increase of 22.8% year-on-year. 5. The US and Israel's military actions against Iran did not meet expectations. Both sides' top officials have been "blaming each other". US President Trump blamed Defense Secretary Hedges and Chief of Staff Kane, saying that the two did not want to talk about reconciliation and were only seeking war. In Israel, the director of Mossad, Barnea, was accused of misleading the US and Israeli governments, claiming that they could incite internal unrest in Iran and even overthrow the regime after the attack. 6. Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the current Fed policy is unjustifiably dragging the economy. The Fed should gradually lower interest rates to the neutral level within this year. Due to the impact of oil prices, the overall inflation forecast for this year has been raised to 2.7%. 7. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that if the current energy cost surge could potentially trigger broader inflation, the European Central Bank would take decisive and prompt actions, but is still assessing the impact of the situation in the Middle East, and will adjust policies at any meeting if necessary.
Summary of Alumina Outlook: The main contract of alumina has fluctuated and declined. The position volume has increased, the spot price is at a discount, and the basis has strengthened. From the fundamental perspective, the mining of bauxite in Guinea has seasonally rebounded. However, under the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, transportation capacity has decreased and shipping costs have risen, causing the center of bauxite prices to shift upward, which supports the cost of alumina. From the supply side, the import of alumina has increased both in terms of volume and compared to the previous period. In addition, new production capacity has been released one after another, and the domestic supply of alumina still remains in a relatively abundant state. From the demand side, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum plants in China has remained stable. Moreover, due to the impact of overseas situations, the international supply of aluminum has turned to negative growth. There may be export demand in the future, and there is an expectation of growth in the demand for raw material alumina. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of relatively abundant supply and stable demand. The industry consumption expectations are positive. Technically, in the 60-minute chart, the two lines are below the 0 axis, and the green bar has converged. Summary of the view: Hold a small position for a trading strategy of oscillation, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and transaction risks.
Summary of views on electrolytic aluminum: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is experiencing a fluctuating trend, with a decrease in持仓 volume, a spread between spot and futures, and a weakening of the basis. In terms of fundamentals， the price of alumina has risen due to the impact of geopolitical situations， and the price of aluminum has strengthened due to expectations of an overseas supply gap， allowing smelters to maintain a favorable theoretical profit. On the supply side， electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high operating rates due to good smelting profit conditions and sufficient raw material supply， while domestic supply remains stable. On the demand side， as the domestic "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season progresses， the operating rate of downstream aluminum products has increased， but due to the impact of geopolitical expectations on economic expectations， aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels and fluctuate sharply. The purchasing intention of downstream customers gradually turns cautious， and with the decline in aluminum prices， downstream consumption may be boosted. Additionally， the stagnation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East due to war has led to a supply gap in the international aluminum market, which supports the expectations for domestic electrolytic aluminum exports. Overall， the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand， with a slight increase in industrial inventory， and the industry expectations remain positive. In terms of options， the ratio of call and put option holdings at the at-the-money level is 1.75， down by 0.16 compared with the previous period. The sentiment in the option market is bullish， and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically， in the 60-minute MACD， both lines are below the 0 axis， and the red bar is converging. Summary of views： Hold a small position for oscillating trading， and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and transaction risks.
Summary of the outlook for cast aluminum: The main cast aluminum contract has an oscillating trend, with a decrease in holdings, a rise in spot premiums, and a weakening of the basis. From the supply side, the quotations of scrap aluminum have weakened along with the decline in aluminum prices. The dealers' sentiment to hold and sell at a higher price is gradually increasing. The price of scrap aluminum remains at a high level, providing still strong support for cast aluminum. On the supply side, the cast aluminum factories are more actively producing, but due to the reluctance of scrap aluminum traders to sell, they mainly adopt strategies such as consuming raw material inventories and purchasing scrap aluminum for urgent needs. The supply of cast aluminum in China may increase. On the demand side, downstream die-casting factories have become more cautious in purchasing due to the high price of cast aluminum, and mostly adopt strategies of buying at a low price and urgent purchases. The transaction situation in the spot market is relatively sluggish. Overall, the fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage of increased supply and reduced demand. Technically, in the 60-minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging. Summary of the view: Hold a light position for oscillating trading, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and transaction risks.
