Recently, the price of aluminum futures has dropped to the level of the low point in December last year and then stabilized and rebounded again. Yesterday, the main contract of aluminum futures rose by 3.27%. Although the market atmosphere for commodities has been relatively strong recently, the extent of the subsequent rebound of aluminum still needs to be observed.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 146.7 million tons of bauxite. The total annual import of bauxite in China was 201 million tons, an increase of 26.72% compared to the previous year. Among this, from January to December 2025, China imported a cumulative total of 149 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, an increase of 35.65% compared to the previous year. According to relevant research, a large mining company in Guinea officially resumed production on December 13, 2025, after its mining rights were revoked in May 2025. Port consolidation and maritime transportation operations will also be restarted simultaneously, and project operations will be fully restored. It is expected that the first batch of ore will be dispatched in January, providing important support for the long-term supply of bauxite. Relevant data shows that since 2026, the weekly shipment volume of bauxite at the port in Guinea has been 3.27 million tons, 4.10 million tons, and 4.30 million tons respectively, showing a rapid increase compared with the previous period. The domestic port's inventory of bauxite has reached 24.5 million tons, maintaining a high level.
In terms of prices, the price of overseas bauxite has continued to decline. As of January 22nd, the average CIF price of bauxite from Guinea was reported at 64 US dollars per ton, down by 1 US dollar per ton compared with the previous period; the index for imported bauxite was 65.85 US dollars per ton, down by 1.76 US dollars per ton compared with the previous period. Currently, the spot price of alumina is continuing to weaken, and alumina plants have a low willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium. Given the abundant supply of overseas bauxite resources, it is expected that the price of imported bauxite will still have downward potential.
In the northern mining areas, due to the influence of the weather, there were short-term production reductions and transportation disruptions. In the southern regions, there were no significant changes in domestic ore production, and the prices of domestic ores remained stable for the short term. Relevant data shows that as of January 22nd, the self-pickup transaction price of aluminosilicate ratio 5.0 and 60% alumina content bauxite without value-added tax from the crushing plant in Shanxi region is between 570 and 600 yuan per ton; the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with aluminosilicate ratio 5.0 and 60% alumina content from the crushing plant without value-added tax in Henan region is between 530 and 570 yuan per ton; the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with aluminosilicate ratio 5.5 and 58% alumina content from the crushing plant without value-added tax in Guizhou region is between 400 and 450 yuan per ton; the self-pickup transaction price of bauxite with aluminosilicate ratio 6.0 and 53% alumina content from the crushing plant without value-added tax in Guangxi region is between 320 and 335 yuan per ton.
It should be noted that recently, two exploration rights for bauxite in Shanxi Province failed to be successfully auctioned, which came as a surprise to the market. In 2025, a total of 9 bauxite mining rights were successfully auctioned in Shanxi Province, with a total transaction amount exceeding 20 billion yuan, making it the mineral type with the largest transaction volume in Shanxi Province that year. However, the continuous decline in the prices of alumina and bauxite has also led to a continuous decrease in the popularity of the capital market.
Recently, domestic alumina plants have undergone frequent maintenance. The reasons include high production and operation pressure and the impact of severe pollution weather. However, the impact on output is relatively limited. Relevant data shows that as of January 22nd, the total annual production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina across the country was 110.32 million tons, and the total operating capacity was 87.12 million tons. The national alumina production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points compared with the previous month, reaching 79.97%. In terms of inventory, as of January 23rd, the total alumina inventory was 5.487 million tons, much higher than the 3.776 million tons in the same period last year.
Although the industry is currently in a loss-making state, the prices of raw materials continue to decline, and large-scale production cuts and capacity liquidation in the industry still require time. According to the data, as of January 22nd, the weekly average cost of the domestic alumina industry was 2,897 yuan per ton, and the weekly average profit was -246 yuan per ton. The industry has been in a loss state since the National Day holiday in 2025, but compared with the most severe losses in April and May 2025, there is still a gap of approximately 200 yuan per ton.
Overall, the recent supply of bauxite has been abundant and the price has dropped, which has further reduced the cost of alumina and alleviated the industry's loss situation. The rebound in the futures price of alumina has not yet led to a simultaneous increase in the spot price, and the trend reversal still requires time.
