The turmoil in Iran has disrupted supplies, prompting American aluminum buyers to urgently seek alternative sources.
March 9, 2026
With the outbreak of the war in Iran and the resulting actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US aluminum market is now facing an unprecedented supply crisis. The Middle East supplied nearly one-fifth of the US aluminum imports last year, and major producers such as Qatar and Bahrain have successively suspended shipments due to disrupted logistics and gas shortages.
The sudden disruption of supplies from the Middle East has caused panic among American manufacturers. Since aluminum is indispensable in automotive parts, household appliances, and beverage cans, and factories typically adopt the "just-in-time" purchasing model, a short-term supply cut is sufficient to cause production chaos. Currently, American buyers are urgently turning their attention to markets in India, Australia, South Korea, and Northern Europe. However, transporting metals from India via the Pacific usually takes up to 60 days, which is far from helpful for factories in urgent need of immediate supplies.
Before the outbreak of the war, due to the 50% import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, the price of aluminum paid by the US manufacturing industry had already reached a global high. Currently, the LME aluminum price has soared to its highest level since 2022, and the aluminum premium in the central and western regions of the US has also reached an all-time record. The country that was originally the most convenient alternative source, Canada, has gradually shifted its exports to Europe due to the pressure of tariffs, leaving US buyers facing a double predicament of "no food to cook with" and "high prices".
Experts warn that this crisis might just be the "tip of the iceberg". Currently, about 6 million tons of primary aluminum in the Middle East are stranded due to logistics issues, and the inventory of alumina, the raw material needed by local smelters, is only sufficient to last for about 30 days. Large smelters such as Qatalum have already begun to shut down due to energy shortages, and the restart of aluminum smelting equipment often takes more than half a year. Bank BofA has raised its global aluminum shortage forecast from 1 million tons to 15 million tons. For the US aluminum industry, under the combined pressure of tariff barriers and geopolitical conflicts, a deep supply shortage and cost crisis is accelerating its arrival.
