UBS: Supply risks in the Middle East push up LME aluminum price forecast by 13%
March 16, 2026
UBS released a commodity report stating that the recent supply risks in the Middle East have pushed up international aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum is the commodity most affected by the conflicts in the Middle East.
The bank stated that approximately 650,000 tons of aluminum supply has been disrupted. If the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for several weeks, it could lead to the closure of about 4 million tons of smelting capacity. This would increase the short-term risk of rising aluminum prices. The bank raised its forecast for LME aluminum prices in 2026 by 13% to approximately $3,250 per ton, while maintaining the 2027 forecast at $3,300 per ton.
