Market Review
In October 2025, under the influence of internal and external macro disturbances, electrolytic aluminum followed the overall strengthening of the non-ferrous metal sector. However, due to the reduction in terminal orders and the suppression of high prices, the growth rate of downstream consumption slowed down, and inventory showed an alternating trend of reduction and slight accumulation. On October 21st, an electrical accident occurred at the electrolytic aluminum plant under Century Aluminum in Iceland, resulting in a significant reduction in production. Supply fluctuations occurred simultaneously in Australia and other places, and expectations of tight overseas supply have risen. The improvement of the macro atmosphere in Europe and the United States has jointly driven the short-term strengthening of global aluminum prices. Domestic alumina prices have been continuously falling, and the import window has opened. Against the backdrop of industry profit differentiation, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has further declined, with the profit range per ton expanding to around 5,100 yuan and the gross profit margin increasing to 25%.
Market analysis
At the macro level, the overseas macro environment and the ongoing Sino-US negotiations have continuously disturbed market sentiment. The implementation effect of the domestic "15th Five-Year Plan" policies and their positive impact on the industry remain to be observed.
The fundamentals of supply and demand: driven by high profits, supply remains at a high level. Structural disturbances tend to balance out. The short-term increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited. The import window continues to open. Overall supply pressure is controllable. High prices have exerted certain suppression on downstream inventory replenishment and consumption. The performance of various terminal sectors has been differentiated. Overall demand remains stable, and the growth momentum still needs to be observed.
From a technical perspective, the aluminum price has broken through the upper limit of the previous fluctuation range and successfully surpassed the 21,000 yuan per ton psychological mark, with a clear upward trend. The 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages form a bullish alignment, providing strong short-term support. The trading volume increased simultaneously, and the volume and price were well coordinated, confirming that the upward momentum was sufficient. The MACD indicator remains in a golden cross state and the red column continues to expand, indicating a strong continuity of the bullish trend. However, the KDJ indicator has entered an overbought zone, and there may be a slight pullback pressure in the short term.
Market judgment
In the short term, domestic production capacity remains at a high level, and the continuous decline in costs has driven the profit of electrolytic aluminum to remain at a high level and further expand. The import window remains open. High prices have exerted certain suppression on downstream inventory replenishment and consumption. The performance of various terminal sectors is differentiated, but overall demand remains stable. The price range of electrolytic aluminum is [20,500, 22,000] yuan per ton.
In the medium term, domestic production will remain at a high level, and overseas marginal production capacity is expected to be gradually released. The market will present a pattern of "strong domestically and weak internationally, strong near and weak far". The expected price range of electrolytic aluminum is [19,500, 24,000] yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay close attention to the fluctuations in domestic and international macro sentiment and geopolitical risks.
Review: Supply disruptions have pushed up aluminum prices, reducing costs and boosting profits
Review: [20680,21300], +3%, fluctuating upward
Under the influence of internal and external macro disturbances, electrolytic aluminum has followed the overall strengthening of the non-ferrous metal sector. However, due to the reduction in terminal orders and the suppression of high prices, the growth rate of downstream consumption has slowed down, and inventory has shown an alternating trend of reduction and a slight accumulation.
On October 21st, an electrical accident occurred at the electrolytic aluminum plant under Century Aluminum in Iceland, resulting in a significant reduction in production. Supply fluctuations also occurred in Australia and other places, and expectations of tight overseas supply have risen. The improvement of the macro atmosphere in Europe and the United States has driven the global aluminum price to strengthen in the short term.
Domestic alumina prices have been continuously falling, and the import window has opened. Against the backdrop of industry profit differentiation, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has further declined, with the profit range per ton expanding to around 5,100 yuan and the gross profit margin increasing to 25%.
Outlook: Short-term [20,500, 22,000], with strong volatility but limited upside potential
The overseas macro situation and the Sino-US negotiations have stirred up sentiment. The implementation effect of the domestic "15th Five-Year Plan" policies and their benefits to the industry remain to be observed.
For the time being, it is difficult to maintain a tight balance domestically. Pay attention to the progress of production release from the project in Indonesia. Under the loose raw material conditions, it is expected that the high profit of electrolysis will increase further at a high level.
The medium-term capacity bottleneck is expected to be resolved, and the negative feedback of demand under high prices will intensify. Suppress the upward movement of aluminum prices.
Supply: Domestic production remains at a high level, and overseas marginal production capacity is expected to be gradually released
Electrolytic aluminum: Domestic production capacity remains at a high level, and short-term increments are limited. The production cut caused by the accident in Iceland has caused a short-term disturbance. However, in the medium term (2025Q4-2026Q3), the marginal increase in production and resumption in Indonesia and other overseas regions will gradually be released, and the global capacity bottleneck is expected to ease.
Alumina: The supply side is relatively loose. The accumulation of electrolytic aluminum plants has driven the continuous accumulation of domestic inventories, and the urgency of raw material procurement has significantly decreased. This trend exerts pressure on the spot market, thereby limiting the upside potential of alumina prices.
Profit: The domestic price of alumina has been continuously falling, and the import window has opened. Against the backdrop of industry profit differentiation, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has further declined, expanding the profit range per ton to around 5,100 yuan and increasing the gross profit margin to 25%.
Import and export: In September, 246,800 tons of primary aluminium were imported, while 29,000 tons were exported during the same period. The window for phased profits in imports remains open, and the overall net import volume remains stable.
In conclusion, driven by high profits, supply remains at a high level, structural disturbances tend to balance, the short-term increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited, the import window continues to open, and the overall supply pressure is controllable.
Demand: Sectoral differentiation and high price suppression
Building structure (26%) : With the support of the "stable growth" and "15th Five-Year Plan" policies, despite being in the traditional peak season, demand remained relatively stable. The marginal improvement driven by infrastructure offset the continuous pressure on the terminal real estate market, and the overall consumption performance remained stable.
Automobiles (22%) : In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.617 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 16.25%. It is expected that in November and December, during the final window period of the full purchase tax reduction policy, car sales are likely to show a rebound.
Electronic power (17%) : In September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of power engineering was 4.27%, with the growth rate declining for three consecutive months. Orders in some traditional sectors were under pressure, and consumption declined steadily from a high level.
Photovoltaic (5%) : The improvement in export orders offset the decline in domestic new installations, and the output of solar cells has risen moderately for two consecutive months, supporting the stability of aluminum demand for photovoltaic use.
Exports (11%) : In September, China exported 468,200 tons of aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 11.17% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.22%. Overall exports remained stable, and subsequent performance will depend on the implementation of tariff negotiations.
In conclusion, high prices have a certain suppressive effect on downstream inventory replenishment and consumption. The performance of various terminal sectors was differentiated. Overall demand remained stable, and the growth momentum still needs to be observed.
Supply and demand: Tight balance persists
High supply: Output remains at a high level, and the import window continues to open. Profits are concentrated in the electrolysis process.
Demand remains stable: Despite high prices, demand during peak seasons remains stable, but there is a significant divergence among sectors.
Inventory accumulation: Inventory has been continuously increasing but remains at a relatively low level.
The balance sheet is tight: Tight balance in November and December.
