China's alumina output in December 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's alumina output in December 2025 was 7.655 million tons, an increase of 1.94% year-on-year. The average daily output was 246,900 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the 249,800 tons in November 2025. The daily output of alumina in December slightly decreased compared with that in November, but the overall supply remained in excess. During the month, a certain alumina plant in Shanxi Province slightly reduced its output due to the completion of the annual task and the routine maintenance of the roasting furnace. Due to the factory's own plans and weather conditions, a certain alumina enterprise in Henan Province has temporarily reduced the shutdown of its roasting furnace.
As the domestic alumina price in December has fallen below the full cost line of the industry, coupled with the cash cost losses in the Shanxi and Henan regions, it is expected that some alumina plants may reduce production in the middle and late January under the condition that the price remains relatively low. Meanwhile, as long-term orders for alumina are signed one after another in 2026, the production willingness of alumina plants may decline, and they may appropriately reduce their production capacity. The final expectation is that the operation of alumina in January will slightly decline, which will be reflected in a slight reduction in alumina supply. It is expected that the daily output of China's alumina industry in January 2026 will slightly decrease compared to December. The domestic output of alumina in China in January was approximately 7.6 million tons.
2. Monthly Supply and Demand balance Comparison of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in China in December 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, in December 2025, China's output of metallurgical grade alumina was 7.655 million tons. Based on actual arrivals at the port (excluding customs declaration time), 224,500 tons of imported alumina arrived in China in December. The export volume in December, calculated based on the time of departure from the port (excluding the time of customs declaration), was 135,000 tons. However, about 200,000 tons of non-metallurgical grade alumina were used. China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7846 million tons. Calculated based on the consumption of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, China's alumina supply was in excess by 240,200 tons in December, and the supply in the alumina market remained in excess.
3. Monthly Supply and Demand Balance comparison Forecast of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum in China in January 2026
Yuefeng Aluminum predicts that China's alumina output in January 2026 will be approximately 7.6 million tons, with about 190,000 tons of non-aluminum alumina. Regarding imported alumina, it is estimated that the import volume in January will be around 249,000 tons, and the export volume will be approximately 166,500 tons. The output of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 3.79 million tons. Based on the calculation of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, It is estimated that there will be an oversupply of 177,800 tons of alumina in China in January, and the supply in the alumina market remains slightly excessive.
