China's alumina output in September 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's alumina output in September 2025 was 7.623 million tons, an increase of 8.39% year-on-year. The average daily output was 254,100 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons compared to the 251,400 tons per day in August 2025. The supply of alumina increased in September. A certain alumina enterprise in Southwest China had been operating at a reduced production capacity in the early stage. Recently, it has repeatedly increased its operating load and has now resumed full production. At the beginning of the month, due to the military parade, the short-term roasting volume of some enterprises in the north decreased, but the impact was relatively limited. Some alumina enterprises in the south are conducting maintenance on their roasting furnaces, mainly in the first half of the month. Overall, the supply of alumina this month was relatively abundant. The expansion of the price difference led to the flow of alumina from the north to the south, and the tight supply situation within the region was somewhat alleviated. The overall feedback to Nissan showed a slight increase in September.
During the double Festival, the production fluctuations of alumina enterprises were relatively small. In the short term, the supply changes were limited, and the situation of oversupply will continue. In the long term, as the price of alumina drops, some enterprises with higher costs are at risk of losses. It is not ruled out that these enterprises will undergo maintenance or production cuts in the future. At present, no enterprise has a clear plan to cut production. It is expected that the production cut may occur around the end of October, and the supply of alumina will decrease. It is expected that the daily output of China's alumina industry in October 2025 will slightly decrease compared to September. The domestic output of alumina in China in October was approximately 7.85 million tons.
2. Monthly Supply and Demand Balance Comparison of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in China in September 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, in September 2025, China's output of metallurgical grade alumina was 7.623 million tons. Calculated based on actual arrivals at the port (excluding customs declaration time), 87,500 tons of imported alumina arrived in China in September. The export volume in September is 200,000 tons, calculated based on the time of departure from the port (not the time of customs declaration). About 210,000 tons of non-metallurgical grade alumina were used. China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6488 million tons. Calculated at a consumption of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, there was an oversupply of 258,300 tons of alumina in China in September, indicating a slight surplus in the alumina market.
3. Monthly Supply and Demand Balance comparison Forecast of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum in China in October 2025
Yuefeng Aluminum predicts that China's alumina output in October 2025 will be approximately 7.85 million tons, with about 220,000 tons for non-aluminum use. Regarding imported alumina, it is estimated that the import volume in October will be around 169,500 tons, and the export volume will be approximately 210,000 tons. The output of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be about 3.772 million tons. Based on the calculation of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, It is estimated that China's supply of alumina will be in excess by 309,500 tons in October, and there will still be a surplus in the alumina market.
