"According to industry self-regulation concerning the 'cap' on primary aluminum production and forecasts for carbon emissions by 2025, China's aluminum industry has achieved its carbon peak target six years ahead of schedule in 2024," the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association recently introduced at a relevant meeting. It highlighted the significant achievements made in green development of China's aluminum industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025).
At the end of 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Nonferrous Metals Industry." It clearly stated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the structure of industrial sectors and energy consumption within the nonferrous metals industry will be significantly optimized. Important progress will be made in the research and application of low-carbon processes, with further reductions in energy consumption and carbon emission intensity per unit product. The proportion of recycled metal supply is expected to reach over 24%, aiming for renewable energy usage in primary aluminum production to account for 25% by 2025. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), there will be substantial improvements in the energy consumption structure of the nonferrous metals industry, with renewable energy use in primary aluminum reaching over 30%. A green, low-carbon, and circular development industrial system will be basically established, ensuring that the nonferrous metals industry achieves carbon peak before 2030.
Achieving carbon peak six years ahead of schedule during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was predicated on supply-side structural reform in the primary aluminum sector as a prerequisite and key support. On this basis, the aluminum industry accelerated efforts to reduce energy consumption, increase the proportion of green electricity, boost the output of recycled aluminum, and increasingly emphasized the integrated development of primary, recycled, and processed aluminum. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2021 to 2024, China's primary aluminum output was 38.49 million tons, 40.17 million tons, 41.63 million tons, and 43.82 million tons respectively, with an estimated output of 44.2 million tons in 2025. Benefiting from the impact of supply-side structural reforms in the primary aluminum industry, growth rates have notably slowed down, approaching the 'cap.' Comprehensive AC power consumption per ton of primary aluminum decreased from 13,519 kWh in 2021 to an estimated less than 13,236 kWh in 2025, under the impetus of scientific and technological innovation. Green electricity aluminum accounted for 19.5%, 23.2%, 24.4%, and 26.2% from 2021 to 2024, with an expected increase to 27.7% in 2025, up by 7.9 percentage points compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Recycled aluminum production increased from 8 million tons in 2021 to an estimated 11.6 million tons in 2025, accounting for 20.8% of total aluminum production.
Preliminary calculations suggest that in 2024, China's aluminum industry had already reached its carbon peak at approximately 555 million tons of CO2 equivalent, with a slight decrease expected in 2025.
Since the proposal of China's dual carbon goals and the "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Nonferrous Metals Industry," the nonferrous metals industry has accelerated its transition towards green development. Carbon emissions from primary aluminum are critical to achieving carbon peak in the aluminum industry and are also the crux of achieving carbon peak in the nonferrous metals industry. Relevant data shows that carbon emissions from primary aluminum account for about 80% of the aluminum industry's carbon emissions and around 70% of the nonferrous metals industry's carbon emissions. Therefore, the primary aluminum sector has been identified as the main focus for achieving carbon peak in the industry, focusing on deepening supply-side structural reforms, optimizing industrial structures, enhancing technology for energy conservation and carbon reduction, accelerating the replacement of traditional energy sources with clean energy, and promoting the substitution of recycled metals for primary metals.
Benefiting from supply-side structural reforms, primary aluminum capacity continues to shift towards regions rich in clean energy and with lower electricity prices. Over 5 million tons of capacity were transferred during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, forming new clusters of green electricity aluminum in Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and other areas, improving industrial matching and corporate concentration. For instance, Yunnan Province, relying on abundant hydropower resources, has built several green electricity aluminum bases such as Wenshan, Zhaotong, Qujing, and Honghe, currently having a total primary aluminum capacity of 6.68 million tons. Guangyuan in Sichuan, leveraging its rich hydropower resources, has formed a primary aluminum capacity of 615 thousand tons. Tongliao in Inner Mongolia actively promotes the "Green Electricity Aluminum City," steadily increasing green electricity aluminum capacity through integrated wind-solar-storage models, now reaching 2.7 million tons of primary aluminum capacity.
Key enterprises have taken proactive actions, making significant contributions to achieving carbon peak in the aluminum industry. As the world's largest aluminum producer, Chinalco Group had green energy accounting for 45.5% of its primary aluminum production in 2024. Among them, Yun Aluminum's green electricity ratio exceeded 85%, leading the industry in launching "distributed photovoltaic projects within factories," jointly developing photovoltaic power generation direct current connection technology for electrolytic aluminum production with SPIC Yunnan International, striving to create a "green aluminum" brand. Baotou Aluminum Industry achieved a green electricity ratio exceeding 40% using the Da Maoqi New Energy Project. Weiqiao Pioneering Group, the world's second-largest aluminum company, proactively implemented dual carbon goals, completing the transfer of 2.18 million tons of primary aluminum capacity to Yunnan, actively engaging in the construction and absorption of wind and solar clean energy projects.
In conclusion, achieving carbon peak is not the endpoint; China's aluminum industry will continuously pursue green development. In the future, it will continue to break through key indicators, adopt multiple measures, and explore new development spaces across all links of the industrial chain, constantly improving the level of green development, realizing high-quality green and low-carbon development throughout the entire chain, and making new and greater contributions to achieving national dual carbon goals and global environmental governance.
