According to Brijendra Pratap Singh, Chairman and Managing Director of National Aluminium Company (Nalco), aluminum prices could climb to around $3,000 per ton in the next fiscal year, driven by rising demand and supply constraints.
Singh noted that sustained demand growth across multiple sectors—including electric vehicles, construction, and power—is expected to result in a global aluminum supply deficit in 2026 and 2027.
On the supply side, Singh pointed out that potential shutdowns of smelters in Mozambique, Iceland, and Australia, combined with China’s “production cap” of 45 million metric tons, pose significant threats to aluminum supply. Due to this supply-demand imbalance, Nalco has revised its earlier forecast for 2026 aluminum prices upward—from $2,670 per ton to a range of $2,900–$3,000 per ton.
In contrast, Singh said the outlook for alumina remains weak. Alumina prices have already fallen to around $310–$320 per ton and are expected to stay within the $320–$330 per ton range next year. He attributed this to oversupply resulting from new refining capacity in Indonesia and India, as well as reduced demand following smelter curtailments. “There is an oversupply of alumina in the market,” he stated, adding that this is exerting downward pressure on prices.
