The World Bank predicts that the likelihood of a significant correction in metal prices in the short term is low. The report clearly states: "From 2026 to 2027, prices of most base metals are expected to strengthen further, driven by moderate demand growth coupled with continuously tightening supply conditions." However, the report also cautions that the stability of prices is not absolutely guaranteed. Among the seven metals covered by the World Bank's metal and mineral price index, it highlights that aluminum, nickel, tin, and copper will be the varieties with the most notable increases over the next two years. Particularly, the prices of copper and tin are projected to reach new historical highs in nominal US dollar terms, based on ongoing supply constraints and steady demand growth. Overall, the World Bank expects its base metal price index to rise by nearly 2% cumulatively during 2026-2027. Supply-side pressures will be most pronounced in the aluminum, copper, and tin markets, serving as the core driver supporting price increases. The report adds: "A slowdown in global economic growth, including China, may decelerate the pace of demand expansion, but it is unlikely to reverse the price trend dominated by tightening supply." The report particularly emphasizes that weaker-than-expected growth in major economies remains the biggest threat to metal demand, which could limit further upside potential for metal prices.
