Goldman Sachs believes that China's production cut measures will have a limited stimulating effect on aluminum prices
September 1, 2025
On August 30th, analysts from Goldman Sachs stated that the overall performance of the metal market has been relatively stable recently. The expectation of a US interest rate cut and some supportive policies have provided support. However, at the same time, the supply in the spot market is loose, and China's economic data is relatively weak, which has exerted certain pressure on prices. In terms of aluminum prices, Goldman Sachs believes that China's recent measures to cut production and curb vicious competition in the industry have indeed provided temporary support for aluminum prices, but it is difficult to sustain in the long term. The reason lies in the fact that China's aluminum industry is huge in scale, and the implementation effect of capacity reduction is limited. Meanwhile, the demand side is confronted with the challenges of a sluggish real estate market and a slowdown in industrial activities. Therefore, Goldman Sachs continues to maintain a bearish view on LME aluminum prices.
