Goldman Sachs: Increased production in Indonesia will limit the upside potential of aluminum prices
October 10, 2025
Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the LME aluminum price will fall from the current $2,700 per ton to a minimum of $2,350 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, but this estimated low point is higher than the previously predicted $2,100 per ton in March 2026. As the market surplus expands from 400,000 tons in 2025 to 1.5 to 2 million tons in 2026-2027, aluminium prices will continue to fall. The increase in Indonesia's production will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and it is expected that aluminum prices will not rebound to $2,650 per ton before 2030.
