On Monday, June 2nd, investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 by $140 to $2,280 per ton, saying that the scale of oversupply in the market was smaller than expected, but it expected aluminum prices to fall in early 2026.
The bank said that the impact of the trade conflict on global activities was not as severe as expected, which prompted it to raise its forecast for the year-on-year growth in global aluminium demand in 2025 from 1.1% to 1.8%.
New York, May 30 (Xinhua) -- US President Donald Trump said on May 30 that the import tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from the current 25 percent to 50 percent. According to the Associated Press, during his visit to U.S. Steel Corporation in Pennsylvania on the same day, Trump announced that new tariffs would be imposed on steel imports, claiming that this move was to protect the domestic steel industry in the United States.
Subsequently, Trump stated on his social media that he would raise the import tariff on aluminium from the current 25% to 50%. The tariff hikes on steel and aluminium will both come into effect on June 4th.
Three-month benchmark aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.8% to $2,463 per ton.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the aluminium price will fall to a low of $2,100 per ton in early 2026. It is expected that the average prices in 2026 and 2027 will be $2,230 and $2,500 respectively, lower than the previous predictions of $2,540 and $2,800.
Goldman Sachs said that it currently expects three smelters in Indonesia with an annual output of 500,000 tons to come on stream by mid-2026, earlier than previously expected.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Indonesia will have a surplus of 1 million tons in 2026, which will be the largest surplus since 2020.
The bank said, "As alumina and energy prices remain weak, cost deflation will also increase downward pressure on aluminum prices in 2026, limiting the upward trend of aluminum prices."
Goldman Sachs kept its demand outlook for 2026 unchanged but lowered its forecast for 2027.
