In 2025, the global output of alumina will be 144.98 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%.
February 4, 2026
According to the latest data from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI), global alumina production is expected to reach 144.98 million tons in 2025, an increase of 5.1% compared to 137.88 million tons in 2024. This growth is mainly attributed to the improved operational efficiency of refineries in major production regions, the commissioning of new production capacity, and the sustained demand from the market.
From the regional perspective, as the world's largest producer of alumina, China's output is expected to increase by 8.3% to 883 million tons in 2025, further consolidating its dominant position in the global market. The output in Africa and Asia (excluding China) is projected to rise by 4.8% to 145.3 million tons, with the stable operation of refineries in India and the Middle East contributing to this. In contrast, the output in Oceania remains largely unchanged, while that in South America decreases by 0.4%. The output in Europe (including Russia) and North America drops by 2.9% and 6.4% respectively, mainly due to energy constraints and operational challenges.
In 2025, global alumina production shows a trend of recovery amid fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, affected by the decline in production in South America and Europe, the production in January saw a slight环比 decline. However， it rebounded strongly in March， with a环比 growth of nearly 10%. In mid-year June， the production experienced a环比 decrease of approximately 3%， but it quickly recovered in July， reaching the highest monthly level in six months. During this period， China's operational capacity utilization rate increased to 81.6%. Meanwhile， overseas expansion projects such as the third phase of PT Bintan Alumina in Indonesia and the refining plant of Vedanta Lanjigarh also provided support for global production growth. Although there were fluctuations in production from August to November， the overall level remained high. In October， the production of metallurgical grade alumina reached 37 million tons， and the production of chemical grade alumina was 2.39 million tons. The cumulative consumption from January to September reached 109.7 million tons， and the annual demand is expected to be 142 million tons， which is basically in line with the predicted production.
In 2025, the global alumina market is influenced by both structural and cyclical factors. China's production accounts for 60-62% of the global total output. The increase in production capacity and strong operational performance in the Asian region have supported the overall growth. Although monthly production fluctuates due to factors such as maintenance cycles, energy constraints, and changes in bauxite supply, the high alumina prices, favorable arbitrage opportunities, and the long-term demand in the aluminum industry encourage refineries to maintain a high operating rate. Despite temporary disruptions in some months, the industry demonstrated strong resilience and achieved a steady growth throughout the year.
Looking ahead to 2026, global alumina production is expected to continue to grow. Major producers such as Alcoa anticipate that alumina production will be between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons, and aluminum production will be between 2.4 million and 2.6 million tons, driven by the restart of smelters and the improvement of refining plant operations. Although it may be affected by maintenance and restart costs at the beginning of the year, the strong alumina prices and the continuous industry demand are expected to provide stability to the market.
