On February 3rd, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference on the operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2025 through a combination of offline and online methods. Chen Xuesen, the Party Committee Standing Member, Vice President and Spokesperson of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, presented the operation situation of the nonferrous metals industry in China in 2025, and answered questions from media reporters and enterprise representatives together with the heads of relevant departments.
Chen Xuesen stated that the non-ferrous metals industry has earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, continuously strengthened policy guidance and factor support, and achieved good results in terms of industrial scale, scientific and technological innovation, international cooperation, layout optimization, green development, and digital and intelligentization. The industry's economic benefits have achieved a historic leap, and high-quality development has achieved notable results. The various goals and tasks of the industry's "14th Five-Year Plan" have been successfully accomplished.
Chen Xuesen pointed out that by 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry will continue to deepen its supply-side structural reform, fully promote intelligent, green and integrated transformation, and achieve stable growth and quality improvement in a complex market environment.
On the one hand, the key indicators have shown a stable and positive trend, and the foundation for development has continued to be consolidated.
First, the output of the main products has reached new highs, maintaining a leading position globally. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises increased by 6.9%, which was 1.0 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the national规模以上 industrial added value； the output of ten types of non-ferrous metals exceeded 80 million tons for the first time， reaching 81.75 million tons， an increase of 3.9% compared to the previous year， and the average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period was 5.0%.
From the perspective of product segmentation, the output of refined copper was 147.20 million tons, an increase of 10.4% compared to the previous year, accounting for 47% of the global total, with an average annual growth rate of 8.0% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the output of primary aluminum was 450.16 million tons, an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous year, accounting for 60% of the global total, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The content of six types of mine metals was 61.90 million tons, an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous year; the output of alumina was 92.446 million tons, an increase of 8.0% compared to the previous year; the output of copper products was 24.814 million tons, an increase of 4.7% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the output of aluminum products was 67.504 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
According to the preliminary statistics from various branches of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the field of new energy metals, the output of industrial silicon was 4.514 million tons, a decrease of 8.1% compared to the previous year; the output of electrolytic nickel was 456,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% compared to the previous year; the output of refined cobalt was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 15.4% compared to the previous year; and the output of lithium carbonate was 944,000 tons, an increase of 34.7% compared to the previous year.
Second, the structure of fixed asset investment has been optimized, with significant growth in investment in the mining sector. By 2025, the fixed asset investment of the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 4.9% compared to the previous year, with an increase of 2.3 percentage points higher than the national industrial investment growth rate. Among them, the fixed asset investment of the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry increased by 41.0% compared to the previous year, while the fixed asset investment of the smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 4.2% compared to the previous year.
The vitality of private investment has been fully unleashed. In China, private investment in non-ferrous metals completed fixed asset investment, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. Among them, private investment in non-ferrous mineral mining and processing industries increased by 28.7% compared to the previous year, while private investment in smelting and rolling processing industries decreased by 3.9% compared to the previous year.
Thirdly, foreign trade has reached new heights, with strong growth momentum in exports. The non-ferrous metals industry actively implemented a series of policies issued by the state, taking multiple measures to help enterprises explore international markets and effectively respond to the impacts brought about by risks and challenges such as the Sino-US economic and trade frictions. In 2025, the total value of China's non-ferrous metals import and export trade reached a new level, amounting to 412.24 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.4% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 24.2% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Among them, the import volume was 326.31 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.6% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the export volume was 85.93 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.2% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 27.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
In 2025, among the major imported and exported products, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates reached 303.1 million tons, an increase of 7.9% compared to the previous year; the import volume of bauxite reached a record high of 200 million tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous year; the import volume of unprocessed copper and copper products was 53.21 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to the previous year; the export volume of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum products was 61.34 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous year; the export volume of rare earths was 63,000 tons, an increase of 12.9% compared to the previous year.
Fourth, there is a significant disparity in market prices. The prices of traditional industrial metals and precious metals have shown a strong upward trend. In 2025, in the domestic spot market, the annual average price of copper reached a record high of 81,000 yuan per ton, up 8.0% from the previous year; the annual average price of aluminum was 21,000 yuan per ton, up 3.9% from the previous year; the annual average price of lead was 17,000 yuan per ton, down 1.6% from the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 1.8% compared to the third quarter; the annual average price of zinc was 23,000 yuan per ton, down 2.0% from the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 1.3% compared to the third quarter. Precious metals performed exceptionally well. The annual average price of domestic gold spot reached a record high of 796.8 yuan per gram, up 45.3% from the previous year; the domestic gold spot price successively broke through key levels, reaching a peak of 1,017 yuan per gram.
The overall trend of new energy metals shows a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery and a bottoming-out and rebound. In 2025, in the domestic spot market, the annual average price of industrial silicon was 9,670 yuan per ton, down 26.1% compared to the previous year, but the price in the fourth quarter increased by 6.0% compared to the third quarter; the annual average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan per ton, down 16.3% compared to the previous year, but the price recovery trend was particularly prominent, with the price in the fourth quarter increasing by 20.2% compared to the third quarter; the annual average price of nickel was 124,000 yuan per ton, down 7.7% compared to the previous year, but the price rose in December; the annual average price of cobalt was 267,000 yuan per ton, up 31.7% compared to the previous year, and the price increased by 51.3% compared to the third quarter in the fourth quarter.
The fifth point is that the business operation efficiency of enterprises has significantly improved, with asset, revenue and profit scales reaching new highs. Under the continuous strengthening of macro policies and industrial policies, the development vitality of the industry has been fully unleashed. In 2025, there were over 12,000 large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises in China, an increase of 39.2% compared to the end of 2020. In 2025, the total assets of large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises exceeded 6.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the operating revenue reached 10.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.9% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 12.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the profit reached a new historical high, with a total profit of 528.45 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% compared to the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 18.2% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
By sector, in 2025, the total profit of the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry reached 124.86 billion yuan, an increase of 36.1% compared to the previous year; the total profit of the smelting and rolling processing industry was 403.59 billion yuan, an increase of 22.6% compared to the previous year.
Sixth, the green transformation has achieved remarkable results. The energy consumption of the main products has reached the world-leading level. The entire industry has actively implemented the "Carbon Peak Implementation Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry", promoting energy conservation, carbon reduction and green transformation in key areas. According to statistics, the proportion of clean energy in the national grid of the nonferrous metals industry has reached one-third, and the unit energy consumption of the main products has reached the world-leading level. By 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption for copper smelting will be 191 kilograms of standard coal per ton, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the previous year, with an average annual reduction rate of 2.2% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period; the comprehensive AC power consumption for primary aluminum will be 13,202 kilowatt-hours per ton, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous year, approximately 800 kilowatt-hours per ton lower than the global average, with an average annual reduction rate of 0.47% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
It should be noted that according to the 2025 carbon emission forecast, the aluminum industry in China has already achieved carbon peak ahead of schedule in 2024. In accordance with the national "carbon neutrality" goal requirements, the aluminum industry has achieved carbon peak six years earlier than scheduled.
On the other hand, the implementation of industry policies and the deepening of reforms have continuously strengthened the momentum for high-quality development.
First, the industry's growth-stimulating policies have been implemented precisely, and the development direction has become clearer. Multiple departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)" and the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027)" and the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)". Through various measures such as technological innovation, structural optimization, layout upgrading, and digital transformation, the industry has been pushed to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, continuously shaping new development momentum and advantages, and pointing out the direction for the industry's healthy development in the next two years. At the same time, the industry's supply-side structural reform has been deepened. Based on the successful experience of electrolytic aluminum, governance work has been carried out orderly for products with prominent problems of "internal competition" and disorderly competition, guiding the industry towards rationality and high quality development.
Second, the synergy of resource security guarantee strategies has significantly enhanced supply resilience. To improve the strategic resource security guarantee capabilities, a dual-drive approach of "control" and "cycle" was implemented. Firstly, the export control policies for strategic metals such as rare earths were accurately implemented, effectively safeguarding national resource security and preventing the flow of strategic resources to areas that threaten national security. This has significantly enhanced China's voice and influence in global resource governance. Secondly, the release of the "Announcement on Matters Concerning the Management of Import of Recycled Black Powder Raw Materials and Recycled Iron Ore for Lithium-ion Batteries" marked the first legal import qualification for recycled black powder used in lithium-ion batteries, opening up a new path for resource recycling and further enhancing the diversified guarantee capacity of resource supply.
Thirdly, we have made forward-looking arrangements for the development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and have been actively promoting the planning compilation work. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has closely integrated the actual situation of the industry, focusing on the present and looking to the future, and has actively cooperated with relevant government departments to carry out the compilation work of the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry". This plan aims to build a modern nonferrous metals industry system, focuses on resource security and technological innovation, and clearly defines the development ideas, key tasks and implementation paths for the industry in the next five years.
Chen Xuesen stated that, in summary, the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2026 will maintain a steady growth trend. In the first quarter, it will continue to operate smoothly based on the favorable situation at the end of last year, achieving a "good start" during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
Assuming that "black swan" events do not occur, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association predicts the following: Firstly, in 2026, the nonferrous metals industry will maintain stable operation. It is expected that the added value of the nonferrous metals industry will increase by approximately 5% year-on-year. Based on the production characteristics of nonferrous metals and the situation of capacity construction, the output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals in 2026 will increase by approximately 2%, among which the refined copper output will increase by about 5%, and the primary aluminum output will remain basically unchanged.
Secondly, the industry's operating revenue and realized profits continue to increase. In 2026, the prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to stabilize and rise, while the prices of major commonly used non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum will show a high-level fluctuation; the growth rate of the industry's operating revenue is expected to reach 5%, and the realized profits will increase slightly.
Thirdly, investment will continue to grow while import and export trade will face challenges. The demand for nickel, cobalt, lithium and advanced metal materials in downstream sectors such as photovoltaics, wind power and lithium batteries is steadily increasing. Coupled with the implementation and effectiveness of the national consumption promotion policies, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to remain positive. Due to the volatile international geopolitical situation, geopolitical conflicts and the Sino-US trade relationship, the pressure on the import and export of industry products has increased, and the growth rate of non-ferrous metal exports may decline.
After years of continuous efforts, China's non-ferrous metals industry, with its outstanding scale advantages and complete industrial system advantages, has continuously enhanced its position and competitiveness in the global industrial division.
