Home - News - In 2027, the aluminum market supply turns to be in surplus, and Morgan Stanley predicts that the aluminum price will further face pressure at $2,800.
In 2027, the aluminum market supply turns to be in surplus, and Morgan Stanley predicts that the aluminum price will further face pressure at $2,800.
September 22, 2026
Morgan Stanley analysts expect that as the global aluminum market shifts from a supply shortage to a surplus, the aluminum price will face further pressure in 2027.
The investment bank predicts that the supply in the Middle East will gradually recover, and in addition, the continuous ramp-up of new production capacity in Indonesia will increase the supply increment, which will exceed the relatively weak demand growth. This will drive the global aluminum market to form a supply surplus of over 800,000 tons in 2027.
The current aluminum price is approximately $3,200 per ton. Morgan Stanley predicts that it will drop to approximately $2,800 per ton in the second half of 2027, a decline of about 12.5%.
The supply side is the core factor causing the market to weaken. If the previously disrupted production capacity in the Middle East gradually recovers, it will increase the global supply; at the same time, the continuous expansion of the aluminum industry in Indonesia will gradually bring new production to the international market. The combination of these two supply growth factors may significantly alleviate the current market tension.
On the demand side, although aluminum still benefits from energy transition, power grid construction, and industrial demand, Morgan Stanley believes that the overall consumption growth is relatively moderate and cannot fully absorb the new supply.
However, the bank believes that the downward space for the aluminum price may still be limited to some extent. On one hand, the global aluminum production cost is high, and the continuous decline in prices may compress the profits of some high-cost production capacity and inhibit supply growth; on the other hand, as copper prices remain high, the substitution demand of aluminum for copper may increase, thereby providing additional support for aluminum consumption.
