According to data from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI), aluminum production in the Gulf region in April was 38% lower than the pre-war level, and the organization warned that the situation would further deteriorate.
The preliminary production data shows that in April 2026, the aluminum output in the Gulf region dropped to 10,989 tons per day, a decrease of 26.7% compared to 15,000 tons per day in March, and was less than two-thirds of the baseline level before the conflict (approximately 17,800 tons per day).
The aluminum production in the Gulf region accounts for approximately 8% of the global total output. Among this, its supply volume constitutes about 19% of the aluminum imports in the European Union, approximately 28% in Japan, and about 21% in the United States. The supply shock is much greater than the proportion of its production share.
In 2025, the United States will import 860,500 tons of primary aluminum from the Gulf region; the European Union will import aluminum equivalent to nearly one fifth of its total aluminum imports from the five production countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council; Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey also face considerable risks.
Jonathan Grant, the secretary-general of IAI, said: "What we saw in our April data may not be the bottom, or there may be further deterioration, causing the production in the Gulf region to drop to its lowest level in over a decade."
It is reported that due to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz has actually been closed to commercial shipping, most of the produced finished metals are stuck in the smelting plants and cannot be delivered to customers. Moreover, the smelting plants in the Gulf region are unable to replenish their raw material inventories through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying other land routes to maintain operations. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has confirmed the delay in exports and warned that it may use its inventories outside the region to meet contract demands.
Due to the market's response to the tightening supply situation, the aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has reached its highest point in four years.
