Join Hands to Promote the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Global Aluminum Industry

This year marks the concluding year of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and a critical starting point for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). At this pivotal historical juncture—bridging past achievements with future aspirations—we gather here to jointly review hard-won accomplishments, soberly assess current opportunities and challenges, and collaboratively chart a blueprint for future development.

China’s Aluminum Industry: Achievements in High-Quality Development during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Since the launch of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China’s aluminum industry has earnestly implemented the new development philosophy, focusing squarely on high-quality growth. Significant progress has been made in supply-side structural reform, innovation-driven development, and green, intelligent, and specialized transformation.

1. Continuous Optimization of Industrial Structure
Thanks to successful implementation of supply-side structural reforms, electrolytic aluminum capacity has steadily shifted toward regions abundant in clean energy and offering lower electricity prices. Over 5 million metric tons of capacity have been relocated or replaced during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, optimizing industrial layout. New industrial clusters have emerged in provinces like Yunnan and Sichuan, enhancing both industrial synergy and enterprise concentration. By the end of 2024, key electrolytic aluminum enterprises accounted for 72% of total capacity—up 6 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan.

2. Strengthened Technological Innovation
The industry has placed great emphasis on R&D and application. China’s independently developed 1.6-million-ton-per-line alumina production lines and 600kA-class large-scale aluminum electrolysis cells are now widely deployed in new facilities. The 600kA electrolysis cell capacity share reached 10.4%—a 3.4-percentage-point increase since 2020. Alumina energy consumption declined by 19% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. China continues to lead globally in electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency: in 2024, specific energy consumption per ton of aluminum dropped by an additional 300 kWh compared to 2020. Breakthroughs have also been achieved in high-end aluminum products such as aerospace alloys, battery foils for electric vehicles, and automotive sheets. Domestic production rates for key large-scale aluminum processing equipment continue to rise.

3. Steady Advancement in Green and Digital-Intelligent Transformation
In 2024, the share of “green electricity aluminum” (aluminum produced using renewable power) reached 26.2%—up 7.2 percentage points from 2020—with annual output exceeding 11 million tons. Driven by national policies promoting direct green power connections, companies are increasingly investing in renewable energy stations, distributed photovoltaics, and market-based power transactions, further boosting the green aluminum ratio. Meanwhile, the integrated development strategy linking recycled aluminum, primary aluminum, and aluminum processing is gaining momentum. This year, recycled aluminum is expected to account for nearly 50% of inputs in wrought aluminum alloy production, significantly reducing the carbon footprint of aluminum products. Collectively, these efforts indicate that China’s aluminum industry has already peaked its carbon emissions ahead of schedule.

Moreover, after years of dedicated R&D, key technologies have achieved substantive breakthroughs: the utilization rate of red mud (bauxite residue) has risen to 12%—up 7 percentage points since 2020. Automation and visualization levels across production lines continue to improve, with 5G+ technologies accelerating digital-intelligent transformation.

4. Stable and Improving Operational Performance
Through collective industry efforts, average annual production growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was as follows: bauxite (-5.6%), alumina (4.1%), primary aluminum (4.3%), aluminum products (3.6%), and recycled aluminum (9.7%). China’s global production shares stood at 20%, 57%, 59%, 62%, and 24%, respectively. Supported by government policies such as the “Two New Areas” and “Two Key Priorities,” domestic aluminum demand has grown steadily. Total aluminum consumption exceeded 50 million tons, with per capita consumption reaching 35.6 kg—among the highest globally. Aluminum prices remained at historically favorable levels, and in 2024, the industry’s total profit hit a record high—up 51% compared to 2020—demonstrating robust and steady improvement in profitability.

In summary, since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China’s aluminum industry has effectively met and supported both domestic and international economic development needs, further enhancing its global influence.

Challenges Facing China’s Aluminum Industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

While celebrating these achievements, we must remain clear-eyed about emerging challenges, which primarily fall into three categories:

1. Imbalance in Bauxite Supply
First, there is a domestic-international imbalance. China holds only about 3% of global bauxite reserves but accounts for 25% of global bauxite production and over 60% of global alumina output—highlighting severe domestic resource shortages and rising import dependency, which reached 68% in 2024. Second, there is a country-level concentration risk: over 70% of China’s bauxite imports come from Guinea, and more than 20% from Australia. Additionally, over 8 billion tons of overseas bauxite resources secured by Chinese companies are predominantly located in Guinea. Any policy shifts, trade disputes, or natural disasters in these countries could severely disrupt China’s bauxite supply. This raises two critical questions: Should we establish a rational balance between domestic and imported bauxite? And should we diversify our import sources to ensure supply security?

2. Mismatch Between Domestic Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity
The “capacity ceiling” for electrolytic aluminum requires about 90 million tons of alumina annually. However, China’s installed alumina capacity has already surpassed 110 million tons—more than sufficient to meet electrolytic aluminum demand. Yet multiple new alumina production lines are under construction or planned. Once operational, they will exacerbate the oversupply situation. Exporting surplus alumina would be counterproductive—not only due to resource and energy waste but also because of the environmental burden posed by red mud disposal.

3. Insufficient Depth and Breadth in Expanding Aluminum Applications
Although efforts to expand aluminum use have deepened our understanding of its superior properties, significant gaps remain:

• Untapped substitution potential: “Aluminum-for-steel” substitution holds immense promise in construction, transportation, packaging, and machinery, but cost, performance limitations, and inadequate standards constrain adoption.
• Limited “aluminum-for-copper” replacement: While aluminum alloy cables, aluminum-based heat sinks, and copper-aluminum composite conductors are already in use in power, electronics, and appliances, their market penetration remains low.
• Underdeveloped new markets: Emerging sectors like electric vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics—the so-called “new three drivers”—now consume about 5 million tons of aluminum annually, with substantial room for further growth.
• Lack of systemic coordination: Full-chain collaboration—from R&D and design to application and recycling—is insufficient. Comprehensive standards, recommended technologies, supporting industries, and joint mechanisms are underdeveloped. Public awareness of aluminum’s performance and sustainability benefits remains limited.
• Technology gaps: There is inadequate R&D and supply of high-performance alloys with high strength, corrosion resistance, or electrical conductivity.
• High aluminum prices: Elevated prices remain a key barrier to broader adoption. Maintaining aluminum’s cost-performance advantage requires concerted industry effort.

Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan

As this year marks the strategic planning phase for the 15th Five-Year Plan, we must thoroughly implement the spirit of the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and develop practical strategies accordingly.

1. Holistically Strengthen Resource Security
Enhancing aluminum resource security is paramount for sustainable development. We must integrate domestic and international resources, existing and new reserves, and conventional and emerging sources to build a safe, controllable supply system.

• Intensify domestic bauxite exploration through a new round of strategic mineral discovery initiatives, aiming for a 3–5% increase in domestic reserves by 2027.
• Advance exploration and utilization of “coal-overburden bauxite” and establish industrial demonstration mines.
• Stabilize overseas supply by building mutually beneficial import partnerships with more bauxite-rich countries and developing a resilient global supply chain.
• Boost circular utilization of recycled aluminum: promote integration with primary aluminum and processing, targeting 18 million tons of recycled aluminum usage by 2030.
• Support technological breakthroughs and industrialization of aluminum-silicon alloy extraction from high-alumina fly ash and coal gangue.
• Improve utilization of low-grade and high-sulfur bauxite resources.

2. Build Multidimensional Innovation Hubs
As China’s aluminum industry enters a new stage of high-quality development, innovation must drive new industries, models, and growth engines.

• Strengthen fundamental research and original technology investment to establish China as a global source of innovation in aluminum production processes and equipment.
• Empower enterprises as key innovation actors, focusing on critical technologies such as electrolysis energy management, real-time smelting monitoring, and comprehensive utilization of solid/hazardous waste.
• Enhance “industry-academia-research-application” collaboration to improve product performance—e.g., low-sodium metallurgical-grade alumina, high-quality anodes, and high-strength, corrosion-resistant alloys—to better serve energy-saving and application needs across the value chain.
• Develop new products tailored to emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and robotics to broaden application scenarios and expand consumption.
• Foster co-innovation between leading aluminum processors and equipment manufacturers to overcome bottlenecks in high-end products and equipment, addressing key technological gaps and enhancing competitiveness.
• Encourage cross-sector collaboration: partner with building materials firms to explore new red mud applications; adopt “steel-aluminum integration” models to improve energy efficiency; and learn from successful international cooperation frameworks like the “Three Countries, Four Parties” alliance to leverage complementary strengths and mitigate risks.

3. Systematically Advance Green and Low-Carbon Development
As President Xi Jinping emphasized, traditional industries must maintain their leading role while accelerating intelligent and green transformation. Specific actions include:

• Leverage policies enabling direct green power connections; actively participate in renewable energy projects and power procurement to raise clean energy adoption. Target: 30% of electrolytic aluminum powered by renewables by 2030.
• Expand recycled aluminum use and deepen integration across the primary-recycled-processing chain to comprehensively reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum products.
• Scale up cost-effective red mud utilization technologies and intensify R&D on comprehensive treatment of spent pot lining and aluminum dross.
• Prioritize extraction and high-value processing of trace elements like gallium and lithium to enhance overall resource utilization efficiency and value.

4. Diversify Pathways to Expand Aluminum Applications
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has championed aluminum application expansion for over a decade, achieving notable success with strong support from global stakeholders. Going forward, this effort must persist:

• Unlock urban aluminum potential in furniture, infrastructure, and pedestrian bridges. Building on policies like “aluminum window/door replacement programs,” “high-quality housing development,” and “government procurement of aluminum furniture,” further extend applications to underground utility networks and flood control systems.
• Seize global trends in consumption upgrading and green development by proactively serving emerging sectors such as new energy, lightweighting, low-altitude economy, and robotics—firmly expanding consumer demand and cultivating new growth points.
• Leverage new media to amplify awareness of aluminum’s superior performance and low-carbon attributes, helping broader consumers and downstream industries understand, recognize, and choose aluminum.
• Simultaneously, safeguard balanced profitability across the entire value chain to prevent reverse substitution by competing materials and protect aluminum consumption.

Commitment to Global Collaboration for a Better Global Aluminum Industry

Despite complex and volatile international trade conditions, globalized industrial division and resource allocation remain the dominant trend. A stable global aluminum supply chain continues to serve the best interests of all nations, as evidenced by three key developments:

1. Globalized Investment and Development
Chinese enterprises—including Chinalco, SPIC, Xinfa Group, and Nanshan Group—have actively implemented the Belt and Road Initiative, investing in Indonesia, Guinea, Kazakhstan, and beyond, contributing significantly to host-country economies. Meanwhile, international players are also deepening their presence in China: Novelis operates plants in Changzhou and Zhenjiang supplying automotive and aerospace sheet; Hydro runs a facility in Suzhou producing complex automotive components; and Rusal has made equity investments in Wenfeng Steel & Aluminum in Hebei, strengthening vertical integration.

2. Globalized Product and Service Reach
While meeting robust domestic demand, China has become a major global supplier of aluminum products. In 2024, China exported 6.3 million tons of aluminum products to 222 countries and regions. Concurrently, China provided technical and engineering support for international projects—including electrolytic aluminum upgrades in India, alumina plant construction in Vietnam, and integrated aluminum complexes in Indonesia. China also remains a key importer: in 2024, it imported 159 million tons of bauxite, 1.41 million tons of alumina, 1.21 million tons of unwrought aluminum alloys, and 0.4 million tons of aluminum products. Moreover, China is the world’s largest market for advanced aluminum processing equipment—importing the most high-precision wide foil mills, hot strip mills, large extruders, and continuous heat treatment lines for automotive sheet—fueling global high-end equipment demand.

3. Globalized Exchange and Cooperation
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has long championed international collaboration, successfully hosting 24 editions of the China International Aluminum Industry Conference to showcase China’s technological progress. In partnership with the International Aluminium Institute, it co-organized two international forums on red mud utilization to tackle this global challenge. During LME Week, the Association hosts the China Nonferrous Metals Seminar to foster mutual understanding and win-win cooperation. Additionally, global platforms like ALUMINIUM Shanghai, ALUMINIUM Germany, TMS Annual Meeting (USA), and ICSOBA conferences serve as vital venues for industry dialogue and product showcasing.

During this year’s China International Aluminum Industry Conference, we will convene the inaugural Global Aluminum Association Leaders Roundtable, focusing on “green and low-carbon transition, technology and equipment, aluminum application promotion, international investment, and cooperation.” I am confident that the exchange of ideas will spark innovation, and open dialogue will yield concrete collaborations.

Conclusion

Openness is a defining feature of modern China, and future high-quality development must unfold under even more open conditions. Amid unprecedented global changes, China’s aluminum industry will continue strengthening its internal capabilities while adhering to principles of openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation. We will actively integrate into the global industrial and supply chains—and warmly welcome global enterprises to explore collaboration opportunities within China’s aluminum ecosystem. Together, let us seize shared opportunities and jointly promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of the global aluminum industry.