Macquarie: The aluminum price is expected to drop to $3,050 per ton in 2027, due to the global supply outlook turning to surplus.
October 7, 2026
Macquarie analysts predict that the average aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) will be $3,325 per ton in 2026, and will fall to $3,050 per ton next year.
Macquarie stated that in the short term, the aluminum market supply is relatively tight, as Chinese downstream enterprises replenish their inventories before the National Day holiday. However, in 2027, global aluminum supply is still expected to turn to a surplus of 410,000 tons.
Macquarie analysts have lowered the global aluminum market supply gap in 2026 to 820,000 tons, a reduction of 120,000 tons from the previous estimate of 6 months ago. This is because the production capacity restart in the Middle East is faster than expected.
In late August, the UAE-based Global Aluminum Company (EGA) said it has restored one-quarter of the capacity of the Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi; the company is committed to recovering production from the losses caused by the attack in March.
