Morgan Stanley: The tightness in the aluminum market is mainly reflected in the price structure rather than the spot price.
May 12, 2026
Morgan Stanley stated that the tightness in the aluminum market is more reflected in the price structure rather than the spot price itself.
The analyst pointed out that the market tension was mainly reflected in the spread structure and regional premiums. Among them, the spread between the spot price and the three-month contract price has risen to the highest level since 2007.
Supply shortages are being partially offset by weak demand: higher spot prices discourage purchasing, and the steep forward curve raises the cost of holding inventory, prompting downstream users to reduce their stockpiles.
In some application fields, industrial users have begun to substitute materials, using steel or copper instead of aluminium.
